Ardagh Metal Packaging Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AMBP Stock | USD 3.71 0.02 0.54% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your typical level of risk aversion, our recommendation regarding Ardagh Metal Packaging is 'Strong Hold'. A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Ardagh Metal Packaging given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Ardagh Metal. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Ardagh Metal Packaging, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Check out Ardagh Metal Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Ardagh and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Ardagh Metal Packaging. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.
Ardagh |
Execute Ardagh Metal Buy or Sell Advice
The Ardagh recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Ardagh Metal Packaging. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Ardagh Metal Packaging or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Ardagh Metal's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Insignificant | Details | |
Volatility | Slightly risky | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
Ardagh Metal Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.81 B. Net Loss for the year was (50 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 593 M. | |
| Ardagh Metal has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Ardagh Group publishes sustainability roadmap - Marketscreener.com |
Ardagh Metal Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Ardagh Metal's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Ardagh Metal's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Ardagh Metal daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Ardagh Metal Packaging price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Ardagh Metal returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Ardagh Metal.
| Mean Return | 0.18 | Value At Risk | -2.11 | Potential Upside | 2.68 | Standard Deviation | 1.92 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Ardagh Metal historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Ardagh Stock Institutional Investors
The Ardagh Metal's institutional investors refer to entities that pool money to purchase Ardagh Metal's securities or originate loans. These institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds.
| Shares | Solas Capital Management Llc | 2024-09-30 | 3 M | Squarepoint Ops Llc | 2024-06-30 | 2.9 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 2.7 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2024-06-30 | 2.6 M | State Street Corp | 2024-06-30 | 2.5 M | Bw Gestao De Investimentos Ltda | 2024-09-30 | 2 M | Gilman Hill Asset Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1.8 M | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1.8 M | Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 1.8 M | Canyon Capital Advisors Llc | 2024-09-30 | 10.2 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 8.1 M |
Ardagh Metal Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 136M | (27M) | 206M | 92M | (112M) | (106.4M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (10M) | (43M) | (16M) | 540M | 621M | 652.1M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 172M | 66M | (229M) | (391M) | 237M | 248.9M | |
| Depreciation | 290M | 315M | 343M | 359M | 418M | 368.3M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 221M | 68M | 440M | (208M) | (1M) | (950K) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 205M | 268M | 687M | 596M | 379M | 425.2M | |
| Net Income | (40M) | 111M | (210M) | 237M | (50M) | (47.5M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 284M | 257M | 463M | 555M | 443M | 394.2M | |
| Change To Netincome | 20M | (99M) | 309M | (189M) | (170.1M) | (161.6M) |
Ardagh Metal Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ardagh Metal or Metals & Mining sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ardagh Metal's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ardagh stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.82 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Ardagh Metal Volatility Alert
Ardagh Metal Packaging currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.03 and Jensen Alpha of 0.07. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ardagh Metal's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ardagh Metal's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Ardagh Metal Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Ardagh Metal's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Ardagh Metal's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Ardagh Metal and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Ardagh Metal or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Ardagh Metal's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ardagh Metal by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Ardagh Metal to competition |
| Fundamentals | Ardagh Metal | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.64 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0231 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.01) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.06 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 5.86 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 597.69 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 76.04 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 19.03 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.73 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 68.04 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 94.32 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.46 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 4.81 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 593 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 539 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (50 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 583 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.98 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 3.73 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 6.21 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.46 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | (0.16) X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 616 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.75 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (0.12) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.59 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 4.16 | |
| Number Of Employees | 6.3 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.61 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 2.23 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 5.67 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (469 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (17 M) | 1.48 B |
Ardagh Metal Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Ardagh . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Ardagh Metal Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Ardagh Metal Packaging? Buying financial instruments such as Ardagh Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Additional Tools for Ardagh Stock Analysis
When running Ardagh Metal's price analysis, check to measure Ardagh Metal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardagh Metal is operating at the current time. Most of Ardagh Metal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardagh Metal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardagh Metal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardagh Metal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.