First Northwest Bancorp Stock Price Prediction

FNWB Stock  USD 11.07  0.34  3.17%   
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of First Northwest's share price is approaching 45. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling First Northwest, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

45

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of First Northwest's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First Northwest Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting First Northwest's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.19)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.21
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.80)
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.75
Wall Street Target Price
11
Using First Northwest hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Northwest Bancorp from the perspective of First Northwest response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Northwest to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

First Northwest after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.06  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out First Northwest Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Northwest's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.2812.5514.82
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.4311.6913.96
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.9714.2515.82
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.20.06-0.2
Details

First Northwest After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of First Northwest at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Northwest or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Northwest, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

First Northwest Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting First Northwest's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Northwest's historical news coverage. First Northwest's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.79 and 13.33, respectively. We have considered First Northwest's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.07
11.06
After-hype Price
13.33
Upside
First Northwest is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Northwest Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.

First Northwest Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Northwest is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Northwest backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Northwest, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
2.28
  0.01 
 0.00  
10 Events / Month
9 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.07
11.06
0.09 
1,520  
Notes

First Northwest Hype Timeline

First Northwest Bancorp is currently traded for 11.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. First is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.06. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on First Northwest is about 11400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.07. About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.59. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Northwest Bancorp recorded a loss per share of 1.04. The entity last dividend was issued on the 8th of November 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out First Northwest Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

First Northwest Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to First Northwest's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Northwest's future price movements. Getting to know how First Northwest's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Northwest may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
HMNFHMN Financial(0.15)6 per month 1.85  0.12  4.29 (3.19) 13.15 
HFBLHome Federal Bancorp(0.05)6 per month 2.39  0.01  3.82 (4.31) 21.70 
FFNWFirst Financial Northwest 0.24 6 per month 0.75 (0.08) 1.65 (1.13) 4.32 
FCAPFirst Capital 0.48 8 per month 1.81  0.01  6.22 (3.53) 14.42 
CWBCCommunity West Bancshares(0.12)9 per month 1.11  0.03  2.53 (2.16) 9.14 
OFEDOconee Federal Financial(0.61)20 per month 0.00 (0.11) 3.48 (5.28) 12.66 
CULLCullman Bancorp 0.01 7 per month 0.00 (0.25) 1.18 (1.64) 4.73 
CFBKCF Bankshares 0.38 6 per month 1.88  0.11  6.00 (3.51) 12.35 
HVBCHV Bancorp(0.52)3 per month 2.03  0.10  2.68 (4.11) 18.63 
HBCPHome Bancorp 0.59 9 per month 1.74  0.08  3.76 (3.12) 12.98 
GSBCGreat Southern Bancorp(0.03)8 per month 1.71  0.03  3.56 (3.32) 19.09 

First Northwest Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About First Northwest Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of First Northwest stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Northwest Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Northwest based on analysis of First Northwest hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Northwest's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Northwest's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.01370.020.0190.0104
Price To Sales Ratio2.51.742.222.11

Story Coverage note for First Northwest

The number of cover stories for First Northwest depends on current market conditions and First Northwest's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Northwest is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Northwest's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

First Northwest Short Properties

First Northwest's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Northwest's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Northwest Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Northwest's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Northwest's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding8.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments315.5 M

Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis

When running First Northwest's price analysis, check to measure First Northwest's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Northwest is operating at the current time. Most of First Northwest's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Northwest's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Northwest's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Northwest to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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