Oshkosh Stock Price Prediction
| OSK Stock | USD 113.26 17.63 18.44% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.23 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.3314 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.575 | Wall Street Target Price 116.0147 |
Using Oshkosh hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oshkosh from the perspective of Oshkosh response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Oshkosh using Oshkosh's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Oshkosh using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Oshkosh's stock price.
Oshkosh Short Interest
An investor who is long Oshkosh may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Oshkosh and may potentially protect profits, hedge Oshkosh with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 106.1604 | Short Percent 0.0299 | Short Ratio 2.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 100.7056 |
Oshkosh Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Oshkosh's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Oshkosh. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Oshkosh can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Oshkosh. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Oshkosh's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Oshkosh.
Oshkosh Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Oshkosh's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Oshkosh stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Oshkosh's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Oshkosh stock will not fluctuate a lot when Oshkosh's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Oshkosh to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Oshkosh because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Oshkosh after-hype prediction price | USD 113.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Oshkosh contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Oshkosh will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Oshkosh trading at USD 113.26, that is roughly USD 0.0375 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Oshkosh's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Oshkosh options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Oshkosh |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oshkosh's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oshkosh After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oshkosh at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oshkosh or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oshkosh, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oshkosh Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oshkosh's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oshkosh's historical news coverage. Oshkosh's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 111.54 and 115.48, respectively. We have considered Oshkosh's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oshkosh is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oshkosh is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oshkosh Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oshkosh is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oshkosh backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oshkosh, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 3.09 | 0.52 | 0.10 | 11 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
113.26 | 113.51 | 0.22 |
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Oshkosh Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Oshkosh is traded for 113.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.52, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Oshkosh is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 113.51 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 124.1%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Oshkosh is about 618.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 113.16. The company reported the last year's revenue of 9.65 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 598 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.98 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Oshkosh Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Oshkosh Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oshkosh's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oshkosh's future price movements. Getting to know how Oshkosh's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oshkosh may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TEX | Terex | 0.37 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.13 | (3.87) | 16.47 | |
| ASTE | Astec Industries | (1.06) | 10 per month | 1.59 | 0.05 | 3.35 | (2.45) | 18.86 | |
| HY | Hyster Yale Materials Handling | (2.44) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.18 | (3.69) | 17.87 | |
| MNTX | Manitex International | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.08 | (0.11) | 0.71 | (0.35) | 1.74 | |
| MTW | Manitowoc | (0.06) | 11 per month | 2.73 | (0) | 5.82 | (4.01) | 20.32 | |
| ALG | Alamo Group | (5.90) | 9 per month | 1.39 | 0.05 | 2.28 | (2.39) | 13.75 | |
| WNC | Wabash National | (0.72) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.03 | (3.87) | 12.44 | |
| SHYF | Shyft Group | 0.20 | 9 per month | 3.20 | 0.01 | 5.85 | (5.28) | 20.78 | |
| TWI | Titan International | (0.32) | 7 per month | 3.89 | 0.07 | 6.72 | (5.17) | 41.41 | |
| CNHI | CNHI Old | (0.61) | 9 per month | 1.61 | (0.03) | 3.13 | (2.33) | 12.09 | |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 0.17 | 11 per month | 2.01 | 0 | 3.33 | (2.75) | 9.75 | |
| LNN | Lindsay | 3.60 | 7 per month | 1.25 | 0.09 | 3.16 | (2.42) | 13.76 | |
| CMCO | Columbus McKinnon | 0.26 | 9 per month | 1.41 | 0.05 | 3.74 | (2.80) | 12.30 |
Oshkosh Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oshkosh price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oshkosh using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oshkosh charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Oshkosh Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Oshkosh stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Oshkosh, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Oshkosh based on analysis of Oshkosh hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Oshkosh's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Oshkosh's related companies. | 2021 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0168 | 0.0233 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.7 | 0.39 |
Story Coverage note for Oshkosh
The number of cover stories for Oshkosh depends on current market conditions and Oshkosh's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oshkosh is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oshkosh's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Oshkosh Short Properties
Oshkosh's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oshkosh's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oshkosh often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oshkosh's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oshkosh's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 65.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 125.4 M |
Check out Oshkosh Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Oshkosh Stock please use our How to buy in Oshkosh Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oshkosh. If investors know Oshkosh will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oshkosh listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 1.79 | Earnings Share 10.3 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.092 |
The market value of Oshkosh is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oshkosh that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oshkosh's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oshkosh's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oshkosh's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oshkosh's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oshkosh's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oshkosh is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oshkosh's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.