Moderna Stock Technical Analysis
| MRNA Stock | USD 40.51 1.49 3.55% |
As of the 12th of February 2026, Moderna secures the Mean Deviation of 3.36, risk adjusted performance of 0.1541, and Downside Deviation of 4.21. In connection with fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model lets you check existing technical drivers of Moderna, as well as the relationship between them.
Moderna Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Moderna, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to ModernaModerna's Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.Moderna Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 38.4 | Buy | 27 | Odds |
Most Moderna analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Moderna stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Moderna, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Moderna conference calls.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moderna. Expected growth trajectory for Moderna significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Moderna assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.85) | Earnings Share (7.77) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.45) | Return On Assets |
Understanding Moderna requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Moderna's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Moderna's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Moderna's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Moderna's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Moderna represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Moderna's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.
Moderna 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Moderna's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Moderna.
| 11/14/2025 |
| 02/12/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Moderna on November 14, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Moderna or generate 0.0% return on investment in Moderna over 90 days. Moderna is related to or competes with Bio Techne, Biomarin Pharmaceutical, Exelixis, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Caris Life, Avidity Biosciences, and Revolution Medicines. Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines ... More
Moderna Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Moderna's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Moderna upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1625 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 23.11 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.21 |
Moderna Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Moderna's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Moderna's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Moderna historical prices to predict the future Moderna's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1541 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6768 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3084 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1861 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4104 |
Moderna February 12, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1541 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.4204 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.66 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 4.21 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 543.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.82 | |||
| Variance | 23.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1625 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6768 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3084 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1861 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4104 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 23.11 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.68) | |||
| Skewness | 0.8969 | |||
| Kurtosis | 2.11 |
Moderna Backtested Returns
Moderna appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Moderna has Sharpe Ratio of 0.19, which conveys that the firm had a 0.19 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Moderna's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.94% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise Moderna's Downside Deviation of 4.21, mean deviation of 3.36, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1541 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Moderna holds a performance score of 15. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 2.13, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Moderna will likely underperform. Please check Moderna's coefficient of variation, maximum drawdown, skewness, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and downside variance , to make a quick decision on whether Moderna's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.61 |
Good predictability
Moderna has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Moderna time series from 14th of November 2025 to 29th of December 2025 and 29th of December 2025 to 12th of February 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Moderna price movement. The serial correlation of 0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current Moderna price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.61 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.63 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 36.95 |
Moderna technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Moderna Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was one with a total number of output elements of sixty. The Normalized Average True Range is used to analyze tradable apportunities for Moderna across different markets.
About Moderna Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of Moderna on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Moderna based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on Moderna price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding Moderna. By analyzing Moderna's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Moderna's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to Moderna specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 2.44E-4 | 4.09E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.74 | 5.45 |
Moderna February 12, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of Moderna help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Moderna from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze Moderna charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1541 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.4204 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.66 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 4.21 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 543.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.82 | |||
| Variance | 23.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1625 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6768 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3084 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1861 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4104 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 23.11 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.68) | |||
| Skewness | 0.8969 | |||
| Kurtosis | 2.11 |
Moderna February 12, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Moderna stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1,511,701 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.36) | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | ||
| Day Median Price | 38.74 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 39.33 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.03 |
Complementary Tools for Moderna Stock analysis
When running Moderna's price analysis, check to measure Moderna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moderna is operating at the current time. Most of Moderna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moderna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moderna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moderna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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