Obsidian Energy Stock Technical Analysis
| OBE Stock | USD 8.03 0.28 3.61% |
As of the 11th of February 2026, Obsidian Energy holds the Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1532, semi deviation of 2.5, and Coefficient Of Variation of 548.41. Compared to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model allows you to check existing technical drivers of Obsidian Energy, as well as the relationship between them. Please check Obsidian Energy maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the downside variance and skewness to decide if Obsidian Energy is priced some-what accurately, providing market reflects its current price of 8.03 per share. Given that Obsidian Energy has jensen alpha of 0.4899, we recommend you to check out Obsidian Energy's recent market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.
Obsidian Energy Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Obsidian, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to ObsidianObsidian Energy's Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.Obsidian Energy Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 6.84 | Buy | 4 | Odds |
Most Obsidian analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Obsidian stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Obsidian Energy, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Obsidian conference calls.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could Obsidian diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Obsidian Energy. Anticipated expansion of Obsidian directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Obsidian Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Earnings Share (2.26) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.41) | Return On Assets |
Obsidian Energy's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Obsidian's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Obsidian Energy's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Obsidian Energy's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Obsidian Energy's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Obsidian Energy should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Obsidian Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Obsidian Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Obsidian Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Obsidian Energy.
| 11/13/2025 |
| 02/11/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Obsidian Energy on November 13, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Obsidian Energy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Obsidian Energy over 90 days. Obsidian Energy is related to or competes with WT Offshore, Greenfire Resources, Vaalco Energy, GeoPark, Forum Energy, Star Gas, and Tamboran Resources. Obsidian Energy Ltd. primarily focuses on the exploration, production, and development of oil and natural gas properties... More
Obsidian Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Obsidian Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Obsidian Energy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1501 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.32 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.05) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.16 |
Obsidian Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Obsidian Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Obsidian Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Obsidian Energy historical prices to predict the future Obsidian Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1532 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4899 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.217 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1539 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.83 |
Obsidian Energy February 11, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1532 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 1.84 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 548.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Variance | 8.23 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1501 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4899 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.217 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1539 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.83 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.32 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.05) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.57) | |||
| Skewness | (0.09) | |||
| Kurtosis | (0.67) |
Obsidian Energy Backtested Returns
Obsidian Energy appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Obsidian Energy maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.15, which implies the firm had a 0.15 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Obsidian Energy, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate Obsidian Energy's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1532, semi deviation of 2.5, and Coefficient Of Variation of 548.41 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Obsidian Energy holds a performance score of 12. The company holds a Beta of 0.28, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Obsidian Energy's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Obsidian Energy is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Obsidian Energy's maximum drawdown, skewness, day typical price, as well as the relationship between the downside variance and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Obsidian Energy's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.56 |
Good reverse predictability
Obsidian Energy has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Obsidian Energy time series from 13th of November 2025 to 28th of December 2025 and 28th of December 2025 to 11th of February 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Obsidian Energy price movement. The serial correlation of -0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Obsidian Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.38 |
Obsidian Energy technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Obsidian Energy Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was one with a total number of output elements of sixty. The Normalized Average True Range is used to analyze tradable apportunities for Obsidian Energy across different markets.
About Obsidian Energy Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of Obsidian Energy on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Obsidian Energy based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on Obsidian Energy price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding Obsidian Energy. By analyzing Obsidian Energy's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Obsidian Energy's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to Obsidian Energy specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2025 | 2026 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.52 | 0.92 | Dividend Yield | 0.12 | 0.088 |
Obsidian Energy February 11, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of Obsidian help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Obsidian from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze Obsidian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1532 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 1.84 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 548.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Variance | 8.23 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1501 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4899 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.217 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1539 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.83 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.32 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.05) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.57) | |||
| Skewness | (0.09) | |||
| Kurtosis | (0.67) |
Obsidian Energy February 11, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Obsidian stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 39,498 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.80 | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | ||
| Day Median Price | 7.93 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 7.96 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.24 |
Complementary Tools for Obsidian Stock analysis
When running Obsidian Energy's price analysis, check to measure Obsidian Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Obsidian Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Obsidian Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Obsidian Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Obsidian Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Obsidian Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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