Obsidian Energy Stock Forward View
| OBE Stock | USD 7.51 0.11 1.49% |
Obsidian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Obsidian Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Obsidian Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Obsidian Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of relative strength index of Obsidian Energy's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.84 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.07 | Wall Street Target Price 6.7607 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.38 |
Using Obsidian Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Obsidian Energy from the perspective of Obsidian Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Obsidian Energy using Obsidian Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Obsidian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Obsidian Energy's stock price.
Obsidian Energy Implied Volatility | 0.95 |
Obsidian Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Obsidian Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Obsidian Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Obsidian Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Obsidian Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Obsidian Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 7.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.30. Obsidian Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 7.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Obsidian Energy to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Obsidian Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Obsidian Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Obsidian Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Obsidian Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Obsidian Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Obsidian Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Obsidian Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Obsidian. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Obsidian Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Obsidian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Obsidian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Obsidian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Obsidian Energy Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Obsidian Energy's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2014-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.6 M | Current Value 1000 K | Quarterly Volatility 167.3 M |
Obsidian Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Obsidian Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 7.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Obsidian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Obsidian Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Obsidian Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Obsidian Energy | Obsidian Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Obsidian Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Obsidian Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Obsidian Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.82 and 10.43, respectively. We have considered Obsidian Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Obsidian Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Obsidian Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3365 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1338 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0215 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.2976 |
Predictive Modules for Obsidian Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Obsidian Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Obsidian Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Obsidian Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Obsidian Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Obsidian Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Obsidian Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Obsidian Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Obsidian Energy's historical news coverage. Obsidian Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.66 and 10.28, respectively. We have considered Obsidian Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Obsidian Energy is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Obsidian Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Obsidian Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Obsidian Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Obsidian Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Obsidian Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 2.81 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.51 | 7.47 | 0.53 |
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Obsidian Energy Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February Obsidian Energy is traded for 7.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Obsidian is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.47. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.53%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.45%. The volatility of related hype on Obsidian Energy is about 2128.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.45. About 28.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.48. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Obsidian Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.53. The entity recorded a loss per share of 2.27. The firm last dividend was issued on the 28th of September 2015. Obsidian Energy had 1:7 split on the 10th of June 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Obsidian Energy to cross-verify your projections.Obsidian Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Obsidian Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Obsidian Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Obsidian Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Obsidian Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WTI | WT Offshore | 0.14 | 10 per month | 2.75 | 0.01 | 6.28 | (4.55) | 15.72 | |
| GFR | Greenfire Resources | 0.12 | 9 per month | 3.51 | 0.06 | 5.87 | (6.78) | 14.81 | |
| EGY | Vaalco Energy | (0.11) | 7 per month | 1.68 | 0.18 | 5.48 | (3.33) | 10.23 | |
| GPRK | GeoPark | 0.03 | 9 per month | 2.25 | (0) | 4.21 | (2.75) | 15.62 | |
| FET | Forum Energy Technologies | (0.44) | 9 per month | 3.58 | 0.16 | 5.52 | (3.56) | 16.88 | |
| SGU | Star Gas Partners | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.91 | 0.14 | 2.10 | (1.45) | 6.43 | |
| TBN | Tamboran Resources | (0.81) | 10 per month | 2.21 | 0.04 | 4.46 | (3.26) | 14.63 | |
| OIS | Oil States International | (0.13) | 8 per month | 2.63 | 0.13 | 5.17 | (3.42) | 11.95 | |
| SD | SandRidge Energy | (0.03) | 5 per month | 1.66 | 0.22 | 4.01 | (2.46) | 10.99 | |
| GLOP-PA | GasLog Partners LP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.31 | (0.05) | 0.75 | (0.70) | 2.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Obsidian Energy
For every potential investor in Obsidian, whether a beginner or expert, Obsidian Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Obsidian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Obsidian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Obsidian Energy's price trends.Obsidian Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Obsidian Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Obsidian Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Obsidian Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Obsidian Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Obsidian Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Obsidian Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Obsidian Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Obsidian Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 32649.67 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3143 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.19 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.11 |
Obsidian Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Obsidian Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Obsidian Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting obsidian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Variance | 7.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Obsidian Energy
The number of cover stories for Obsidian Energy depends on current market conditions and Obsidian Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Obsidian Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Obsidian Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Obsidian Energy to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Obsidian Stock refer to our How to Trade Obsidian Stock guide.You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could Obsidian diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Obsidian Energy. Anticipated expansion of Obsidian directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Obsidian Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Earnings Share (2.27) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.41) | Return On Assets |
Obsidian Energy's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Obsidian's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Obsidian Energy's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Obsidian Energy's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Obsidian Energy's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Obsidian Energy should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Obsidian Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.