First Financial Valuation Analysis
| FFIN Stock | USD 32.40 -0.20 -0.61% |
Below Model Estimate
Today
The intrinsic value estimate for First Financial is based on a 3 months horizon. Extending the time horizon generally improves valuation stability.
No single method fully captures First Financial's value — the signal improves when multiple approaches converge. Mature cash-generative businesses are best valued on earnings multiples; high-growth firms may require DCF approaches. For cyclical or capital-intensive industries, normalized earnings provide a more reliable valuation basis. A catalyst analysis determines when First Financial's current price is likely to converge to its intrinsic value estimate.
Main Profitability Drivers
First Financial reports a net profit margin of 23.00% alongside an operating margin of 30.00%. Non-operating charges narrow First Financial's margins by roughly 7.00 percentage points between the operating and net income lines. From $825.8 million in revenue, First Financial retained $622.1 million after cost of goods and reported $253.58 million in net income. Return on equity is 15.00% and return on assets is 1.29%, providing a view of how efficiently First Financial's capital and asset base are deployed. Across most profitability measures, First Financial is under pressure, suggesting headwinds to near-term earnings quality. For a deeper look, explore First Financial's profitability breakdown.
Price Book 2.4 | Gross Profit | Price Sales 7.51 | Profit Margin | Enterprise Value Revenue 7.39 |
First Financial Cash | $1.13 billion |
Cash stood at $1.08 billion as of December 31, 2025.
Revenue by Product
The latest product revenue disclosure for First Financial covers 3 reported segments. The reported segment mix is led by Fiduciary and Trust at 6.98 million, followed by Deposit Account at 5.18 million. First Financial's disclosed segment data helps frame product mix, even when the reported segment totals do not map cleanly to consolidated revenue.First Financial operates as a financial institution generating revenue through lending, deposits, and interest rate spreads, forming the primary lens for valuation. Classified as a growth-weighted stock in Banks, its earnings multiple reflects expectations for durable earnings expansion and platform-level economics. Below, the key valuation drivers are examined to determine what the market is pricing and whether the underlying data supports it.
Total Value Analysis
The current total-value analysis for First Financial Bankshares points to enterprise value near 4.02 billion, market capitalization around 4.67 billion, debt of 21.68 million, and cash and liquid equivalents of 365.78 million as of latest reporting. Reviewing First Financial fundamentals clarifies whether the enterprise-value composition reflects durable capital structure or temporary balance-sheet effects.| Takeover Price | Market Cap | Debt Obligations | Cash & Equivalents |
4.02 billion | 4.67 billion | 21.68 million | 365.78 million |
Investor Information
About 68.0% of FFIN shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of FFIN was currently reported as 13.48. FFIN has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.55. First Financial had its last dividend issued on the 12th of June 2026. FFIN completed a 2-for-1 stock split on 4th of June 2019. Evaluating liquidity trends and earnings sustainability, First Financial appears to maintain moderate financial flexibility with thin profitability. Return on assets remains in positive territory, consistent with the company's business model and scale.| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
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| Operating Profit Margin | 30.00% | 37.49% |
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| Total Cash From Operating Activities | $336.61 million | $320.58 million |
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| Operating Income | $325.09 million | $309.61 million |
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Asset Utilization
The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. First Financial has an asset utilization ratio of 5.35 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $0.0535 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that First Financial Bankshares is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.Macro event markers
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
First Financial's custom levered DCF points to 54.19 per share versus 32.60 in the market, implying upside to the modeled value. Relative to the modeled value, the stock sits roughly 66.2% lower. The model discounts levered cash flows at 11.48% and assumes terminal growth of 2.0%, while forward free cash flow is near 755.24 Million. Projected discounted levered cash flows total about 2.09 Billion, while the terminal value contributes around 68.9% of enterprise value. As a result, the output remains highly sensitive to long-term assumptions.Model Value / Share
54.19
Equity value per share from the current custom levered DCF summary row.
Market Price
32.60
Current market price used by the same scenario.
Model Upside
66.2%
Market price sits below the model output.
WACC / LT Growth
11.48% / 2.0%
Forecast horizon: 2021 to 2030Terminal value share of EV: 68.9%
First Financial Market Price vs. Intrinsic Value
This chart compares observed market pricing with the model-derived equity value per share across forecast periods. It also illustrates the relative premium or discount, expressed as a percentage difference between market valuation and modeled intrinsic value.
Projected Revenue and Levered Free Cash Flow
Revenue and levered free cash flow projections are presented in billions, outlining the expected financial trajectory over the modeled horizon.
Key Model Assumptions
The inputs below reflect the core assumptions applied in the valuation model, including growth expectations, discount rates, and capital structure considerations.
| Input | Current Value |
|---|---|
| Weighted Average Cost of Capital | 11.48% |
| Long-Term Growth Rate | 2.0% |
| Cost of Equity | 7.97% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 761.60% |
| Debt Weighting | 0.46% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.54% |
| Net Debt | -1.06 billion |
| Enterprise Value | 6.72 billion |
| Present Terminal Value | 4.63 billion |
| Terminal Value Share of EV | 68.9% |
Forecast Detail and Valuation Progression
This table presents the underlying forecast data used in the valuation, including revenue, cash flow generation, discounting effects, and the resulting per-share value across each projected period.
| Year | Revenue | Revenue Growth | Free Cash Flow | PV of LFCF | Equity Value / Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 505.62 million | 0.00% | 335.95 million | 0 | 54.13 |
| 2022 | 551.27 million | 9.03% | 308.49 million | 0 | 54.14 |
| 2023 | 622.31 million | 12.89% | 267.57 million | 0 | 54.24 |
| 2024 | 739.21 million | 18.79% | 292.92 million | 0 | 54.22 |
| 2025 | 825.8 million | 11.71% | 307.14 million | 0 | 54.24 |
| 2026 | 934.01 million | 13.10% | 452.46 million | 405.88 million | 54.19 |
| 2027 | 1.06 billion | 13.10% | 511.75 million | 411.81 million | 54.19 |
| 2028 | 1.19 billion | 13.10% | 578.81 million | 417.82 million | 54.19 |
| 2029 | 1.35 billion | 13.10% | 654.65 million | 423.91 million | 54.19 |
| 2030 | 1.53 billion | 13.10% | 740.43 million | 430.1 million | 54.19 |
Profitability Analysis
An analysis of First Financial's profitability data, First Financial Bankshares maintains a strong margin profile with a net profit margin of 23.0% and an operating margin of 30.0%, producing net income of 253.58 million. Return on equity is 15.0%. Profitability remains structurally elevated, but the decline across margin and return indicators points to broad-based compression rather than isolated cost pressure.Net Income | First Reported 1993-03-31 | Previous Quarter 73.31 million | Current Value 71.54 million | Quarterly Volatility 19.16 million |
Macro event markers
| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
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| Gross Profit Margin | 66.00% | 71.82% |
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| Net Profit Margin | 23.00% | 30.71% |
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| Operating Profit Margin | 30.00% | 37.49% |
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| Pretax Profit Margin | 30.00% | 37.49% |
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| Return On Assets | 1.29% | 1.64% |
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| Return On Equity | 15.00% | 13.23% |
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Profitability for First Financial depends on margin structure, capital efficiency, and cost control. Net margin of 23.0% reflects solid earnings conversion and cost discipline relative to revenue. What follows tests whether current margins and returns are sustainable under prevailing business conditions. First Financial reports return on equity of 15.0%, positive but not at levels that signal strong capital efficiency.
Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual
First Financial's forward EPS estimates provide a structured view of expected profitability based on current analyst coverage. First Financial generates 825.8 million in revenue, establishing the scale over which earnings per share are distributed. First Financial's earnings per share carry more weight when cross-referenced with cash flow from operations. Trailing and forward EPS together frame First Financial's earnings arc, though neither alone predicts outcomes. Consensus EPS estimates for First Financial Bankshares represent the market's baseline earnings expectation. Deviations from this consensus on report day typically drive the sharpest price reactions. First Financial reported estimated earnings of 0.5 in earnings per share on 30th of June 2026. Revisions to EPS estimates — direction and magnitude — often move valuation multiples before the actual report date.Macro event markers
Earnings Estimation Breakdown
4 analysts contribute to the current consensus. The last reported EPS was 0.50 as of 31st of March 2026.
Last Reported EPS
0.50
Lowest
0.50
Expected EPS
0.50
Highest
Analyst estimate range around the current expected EPS projection.
Earnings Projection Consensus
| Number of Analysts | Historical Accuracy | Last Reported EPS | Estimated EPS for 30th of June 2026 | Current EPS (TTM) | |
| 4 | 93.58% | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.84 |
Ownership Allocation
Over half of First Financial's outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. Institutional investors such as mutual funds, pension funds, and asset managers typically build positions in companies like First Financial as part of their portfolio management activity, investing on behalf of clients or beneficiaries.Revenue and Profit Overview
FFIN reported previous year's revenue of $825.8 million. Net Income was $253.58 million with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of $622.1 million.Past Dividend Distributions
The dividend profile of the Stock may reflect broader capital allocation priorities and management discipline. Dividend consistency is often evaluated alongside balance-sheet strength and operating margins. For a deeper review of payout history, readers may learn more about the Stock dividends.
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Reading the Current Signals
Valuation at 23.9 times earnings is consistent with what financial infrastructure platforms have commanded in recent periods, where pricing power is anchored to its transaction-driven, asset-light revenue model. In this context, the valuation reflects operating economics rather than a generalized growth or value signal. Above-average earnings conversion at 23.0% reflects a business model where revenue translates into profit more efficiently than is typical for companies in Banks. The profitability structure reflects how the business generates and retains revenue - distinct from many peers in Banks. Leverage at 7.28 is elevated, reflecting the heavy financing requirements inherent in financial infrastructure platforms. For a business built on its transaction-driven, asset-light revenue model, this debt load amplifies both upside and downside from earnings swings. The 15.0% ROE places First Financial in a range where the business covers its cost of capital but has room to improve how effectively equity translates into earnings. The combination of a meaningful dividend yield and solid margins positions First Financial as an income candidate, though payout sustainability depends on continued cash-flow generation at recent levels. At these levels, the market is discounting steady earnings performance roughly in line with historical trends. The key question is whether First Financial continues to meet the growth and margin expectations already reflected in the price.
Valuation Synthesis
First Financial Bankshares operates as a high-margin operation that also carries significant leverage, where debt amplifies both returns and downside exposure within the financial infrastructure platforms space. Operating margins and return on equity remain in constructive territory, consistent with a company that covers its cost of capital and generates positive shareholder returns. However, elevated leverage alongside strong margins creates a dependency on continued earnings stability - debt servicing pressures the business during periods of revenue softness. The data points to a business where current multiples are less informative because underlying profitability has not been established. A re-rating depends on transaction growth, fee economics, and the durability of asset-light financial margins.
For First Financial Bankshares, the valuation signals above are most useful when compared against future developments as new data becomes available. Given the current mix of multiples, margins, and leverage, the valuation picture is most useful when tracked over time rather than read as a static conclusion.
Valuation Framework, Methodology & Assumptions
First Financial is a mid-cap equity in Regional Banks, Banks - Regional, Financial Services categories. Multiples are reviewed relative to comparable companies. Current valuation multiples for First Financial include P/E of 23.9.
First Financial Bankshares metrics draw on periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, standardized for cross-period comparison. Where analyst coverage exists, consensus estimates are factored in. Valuation outputs are model-derived and depend on published assumptions and reference inputs.
The analysis above is generated by quantitative models and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an endorsement to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. See our Terms of Use for full details.
Financial data referenced in this analysis is derived from publicly available SEC filings, audited financial statements, and third-party market data providers. The intrinsic value estimate is generated by Macroaxis quantitative models that incorporate fundamental analysis, technical indicators, and risk metrics.
The methodology combines multiple analytical inputs:
- Fundamental analysis - financial statements, profitability ratios, debt structure, and cash flow metrics sourced from SEC filings and public financial reports
- Technical indicators - historical price patterns, momentum signals, and volatility measures
- Risk assessment - probability of bankruptcy models, market risk metrics, and downside scenario analysis
- Peer comparison - relative valuation against industry peers using standardized multiples
Model outputs are refreshed periodically as new financial data becomes available. Past model performance is not indicative of future results. The intrinsic value estimate reflects a point-in-time calculation and should be considered alongside other research and professional advice.
Data sourced from SEC filings (EDGAR), public financial statements, and market data providers.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Michael Smolkin, Member of Macroaxis Board of Directors
Growth Indicators
Growth investing in First Financial Bankshares can be rewarding, but it usually depends on the market continuing to believe in above-average sales and earnings expansion. This framework is applicable when the question is whether the company can grow efficiently rather than simply grow quickly.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.47 million | |
| Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y | 16.40% | |
| Forward Price Earnings | 22.0264 |
First Financial Current Valuation Indicators
A net-worth review of First Financial Bankshares links market cap to balance-sheet health, cash flow, and implied growth expectations. The key question is comparative: what does the market charge per dollar of revenue, profit, and assets, and is that justified? Reported values are derived from company filings, audited financial statements, and market data, and are standardized within Macroaxis quantitative models for consistency. Model outputs reflect a point-in-time estimate based on available data and assumptions and should be interpreted alongside changes in operating performance, market conditions, and forward expectations.