XPO Logistics Valuation

XPO Stock  USD 179.54  9.92  5.85%   
At this time, the company appears to be fairly valued. XPO Logistics maintains a prevalent Real Value of $176.19 per share. The last-minute price of the company is $179.54. Our model calculates the value of XPO Logistics from analyzing the company fundamentals such as Profit Margin of 0.04 %, current valuation of 22.92 B, and Return On Equity of 0.19 as well as examining its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy. Key fundamental drivers impacting XPO Logistics' valuation include:
Price Book
10.5342
Enterprise Value
22.9 B
Enterprise Value Ebitda
19.4365
Price Sales
2.4758
Forward PE
38.1679
Fairly Valued
Today
179.54
Please note that XPO Logistics' price fluctuation is very steady at this time. Calculation of the real value of XPO Logistics is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing XPO Logistics' time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
Since XPO Logistics is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of XPO Stock. However, XPO Logistics' intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  179.54 Real  176.19 Target  156.08 Hype  180.68 Naive  173.04
The intrinsic value of XPO Logistics' stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, news, and other external factors that may influence XPO Logistics' stock price. It is important to note that the real value of any stock may change over time based on changes in the company's performance.
173.42
Downside
176.19
Real Value
197.49
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of XPO Logistics helps investors to forecast how XPO stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of XPO Logistics more accurately as focusing exclusively on XPO Logistics' fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Earnings
Estimates
LowProjectedHigh
0.971.071.20
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
177.91180.68183.45
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
170.27173.04175.81
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
142.04156.08173.25
Details
Traditionally, analysts and sophisticated investors use multiple methods for valuing a cash-flow-generating entity or its stock. For example, some money managers use XPO Logistics' intrinsic value based on its ongoing forecasts of XPO Logistics' financial statements. In contrast, other private, professional wealth advisors use a multiplier approach by looking to relative value analysis against XPO Logistics' closest peers.

XPO Logistics Cash

275.66 Million

XPO Logistics Total Value Analysis

XPO Logistics is at this time projected to have company total value of 22.92 B with market capitalization of 19.97 B, debt of 4.12 B, and cash on hands of 246 M. Please note that company total value may be misleading and is a subject to accounting gimmicks. We encourage investors to carefully check all of the XPO Logistics fundamentals before making security assessment based on enterprise value of the company
  Takeover PriceMarket CapDebt ObligationsCash
22.92 B
19.97 B
4.12 B
246 M

XPO Logistics Investor Information

About 98.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.66. XPO Logistics had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1683:1000 split on the 1st of November 2022. Based on the key indicators related to XPO Logistics' liquidity, profitability, solvency, and operating efficiency, XPO Logistics is performing exceptionally good at this time. It has a great probability to report excellent financial results in March.

XPO Logistics Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. XPO Logistics has an asset utilization ratio of 104.67 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $1.05 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that XPO Logistics is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.
 
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XPO Logistics Profitability Analysis

Based on XPO Logistics' profitability indicators, XPO Logistics is performing exceptionally good at this time. It has a great probability to showcase excellent profitability results in March. Profitability indicators assess XPO Logistics' ability to earn profits and add value for shareholders.
 
Net Income  
First Reported
2002-03-31
Previous Quarter
106 M
Current Value
82 M
Quarterly Volatility
75.3 M
 
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At this time, XPO Logistics' Pretax Profit Margin is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 5th of February 2026, Operating Profit Margin is likely to grow to 0.08, while Gross Profit is likely to drop about 640.5 M.
For XPO Logistics profitability analysis, we use financial ratios and fundamental drivers that measure the ability of XPO Logistics to generate income relative to revenue, assets, operating costs, and current equity. These fundamental indicators attest to how well XPO Logistics utilizes its assets to generate profit and value for its shareholders. The profitability module also shows relationships between XPO Logistics's most relevant fundamental drivers. It provides multiple suggestions of what could affect the performance of XPO Logistics over time as well as its relative position and ranking within its peers.

XPO Logistics Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual

The next projected EPS of XPO Logistics is estimated to be 1.06575 with future projections ranging from a low of 0.975 to a high of 1.19875. XPO Logistics' most recent 12-month trailing earnings per share (EPS TTM) is at 2.78. Please be aware that the consensus of earnings estimates for XPO Logistics is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
 
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Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
XPO Logistics is projected to generate 1.06575 in earnings per share on the 31st of December 2026. XPO Logistics earnings estimates show analyst consensus about projected XPO Logistics EPS (Earning Per Share). It derives the highest and the lowest estimates based on XPO Logistics' historical volatility. Many public companies, such as XPO Logistics, manage the perception of their earnings on a regular basis to make sure that analyst estimates are accurate. Future earnings calculations are also an essential input when attempting to value a firm.

XPO Logistics Earnings Estimation Breakdown

The calculation of XPO Logistics' earning per share is based on the data from the past 12 consecutive months, used for reporting the company's financial figures. The next projected EPS of XPO Logistics is estimated to be 1.06575 with the future projection ranging from a low of 0.975 to a high of 1.19875. Please be aware that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for XPO Logistics is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
Last Reported EPS
0.0
0.97
Lowest
Expected EPS
1.06575
1.20
Highest

XPO Logistics Earnings Projection Consensus

Suppose the current estimates of XPO Logistics' value are higher than the current market price of the XPO Logistics stock. In this case, investors may conclude that XPO Logistics is overpriced and will exhibit bullish sentiment. On the other hand, if the present value is lower than the stock price, analysts may conclude that the market undervalues the equity. These scenarios may suggest that the market is not as efficient as it should be at the estimation time, and XPO Logistics' stock will quickly adjusts to the new information provided by the consensus estimate.
Number of AnalystsHistorical AccuracyLast Reported EPSEstimated EPS for 31st of December 2026Current EPS (TTM)
2580.97%
0.0
1.06575
2.78

XPO Logistics Ownership Allocation

The majority of XPO Logistics outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. These institutions are usually referred to as non-private investors looking to purchase positions in XPO Logistics to benefit from reduced commissions. Accordingly, other corporate entities are subject to a different set of regulations than regular investors in XPO Logistics. Please pay attention to any change in the institutional holdings of XPO Logistics as this could imply that something significant has changed or is about to change at the company. Please note that on August 13, 2021, Representative Susie Lee of US Congress acquired under $15k worth of XPO Logistics's common stock.

XPO Logistics Profitability Analysis

The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.07 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 387 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.45 B.

About XPO Logistics Valuation

We use absolute and relative valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of XPO Logistics. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of XPO Logistics based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing XPO Logistics's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and their related drivers, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of XPO Logistics's intrinsic value. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of XPO Logistics. We calculate exposure to XPO Logistics's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, and relevant financial multiples and ratios and then compare them to those of XPO Logistics's related companies.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Gross Profit1.1 B640.5 M
Pretax Profit Margin 0.05  0.06 
Operating Profit Margin 0.07  0.08 
Net Profit Margin 0.04  0.05 
Gross Profit Margin 0.13  0.14 

XPO Logistics Growth Indicators

Growth stocks usually refer to those companies expected to grow sales and earnings faster than the market average. Growth stocks typically don't pay dividends, often look expensive, and usually trading at a high P/E ratio. Nevertheless, such valuations could be relatively cheap if the company continues to grow, which will drive the share price up. However, since most investors are paying a high price for a growth stock, based on expectations, if those expectations are not fully realized, growth stocks can see dramatic declines.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding120 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y-0.139
Forward Price Earnings38.1679

XPO Logistics Current Valuation Indicators

XPO Logistics' valuation analysis is a process of estimating the intrinsic value of all assets and outstanding equities. There are different methodologies and models we use to develop the final XPO Logistics' valuation. The techniques such as discounted cash flow and fundamental indicators such as book value per share or market capitalization are well known and widely used across most financial advisers and money managers.
Valuations are an essential part of business, for companies themselves, but also for investors. For companies, such as XPO Logistics, valuations can help measure their progress and success and can help them track their performance in the market compared to others. In addition, investors can use XPO Logistics' valuations to help determine the worth of potential investments. They can do this by using data and information made public by a company. Regardless of who the valuation is for, it essentially describes XPO Logistics' worth.
When determining whether XPO Logistics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of XPO Logistics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Xpo Logistics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Xpo Logistics Stock:
Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in XPO Logistics. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons.
To learn how to invest in XPO Stock, please use our How to Invest in XPO Logistics guide.
You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Will Air Freight & Logistics sector continue expanding? Could XPO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of XPO Logistics. Anticipated expansion of XPO directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every XPO Logistics data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.14)
Earnings Share
2.78
Revenue Per Share
68.664
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.028
Return On Assets
0.0567
The market value of XPO Logistics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of XPO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of XPO Logistics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is XPO Logistics' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because XPO Logistics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect XPO Logistics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between XPO Logistics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if XPO Logistics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, XPO Logistics' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.