First Niles Financial Stock Volatility

FNFI Stock  USD 8.04  0.06  0.74%   
First Niles is somewhat reliable at the moment. First Niles Financial secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of close to zero, which denotes the company had a close to zero % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for First Niles Financial, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Niles' Coefficient Of Variation of 12139.12, mean deviation of 1.49, and Downside Deviation of 3.35 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0217%.

Sharpe Ratio = 0.0082

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Based on monthly moving average First Niles is not performing at its full potential. However, if added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of First Niles by adding First Niles to a well-diversified portfolio.
Key indicators related to First Niles' volatility include:
60 Days Market Risk
Chance Of Distress
60 Days Economic Sensitivity
First Niles Pink Sheet volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of First daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use First's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of First Niles volatility.
  
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of First Niles at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase First stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower their average cost per share, thereby improving the overall portfolio performance when market normalizes. Main indicators related to First Niles' market risk premium analysis include:
Beta
(0.16)
Alpha
0.0218
Risk
2.63
Sharpe Ratio
0.0082
Expected Return
0.0217

First Niles Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

First Niles' beta coefficient measures the volatility of First pink sheet compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents First pink sheet's returns against your selected market. In other words, First Niles's beta of -0.16 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk First Niles pink sheet can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. First Niles Financial shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure First Niles' pink sheet risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact First Niles' pink sheet price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
Check current 90 days First Niles correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)
α0.02   β-0.16
3 Months Beta |Analyze First Niles Financial Demand Trend
Check current 90 days First Niles correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)

First Niles Volatility and Downside Risk

First standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

First Niles Financial Pink Sheet Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which First Niles pink sheet price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with First Niles' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of First Niles' pink sheet to predict their future moves. A pink sheet that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A pink sheet with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile pink sheet is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of First Niles' volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of pink sheet volatility measures First Niles' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict First Niles' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the pink sheet.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for First Niles' current market price. This means that the pink sheet will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on First Niles' to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Developed by Larry Williams, the Weighted Close is the average of First Niles Financial high, low and close of a chart with the close values weighted twice. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes only First Niles closing price as input.

First Niles Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days First Niles Financial has a beta of -0.1588 . This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding First Niles are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, First Niles Financial is likely to outperform the market.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to First Niles or Thrifts & Mortgage Finance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that First Niles' price will be affected by overall pink sheet market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a First pink sheet's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
First Niles Financial has an alpha of 0.0218, implying that it can generate a 0.0218 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
First Niles' volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how first pink sheet's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a First Niles Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a pink sheet's market volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

First Niles Pink Sheet Risk Measures

Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of First Niles is 12139.12. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 6.91 and standard deviation of 2.63. The mean deviation of First Niles Financial is currently at 1.49. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.73
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.16
σ
Overall volatility
2.63
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

First Niles Pink Sheet Return Volatility

First Niles historical daily return volatility represents how much of First Niles pink sheet's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 2.6283% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7248% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance 
       Timeline  

Related Correlations Analysis


Correlation Matchups

Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.

High positive correlations

LBNWASCN
LBNWFSGB
LBNWTDCB
TDCBFPBC
ASCNFSGB
FPBCFSGB
  

High negative correlations

MFDBTDCB
MFDBFPBC
FCPBUSMT
MFDBFSGB
FCPBFPBC
LBNWMFDB

Risk-Adjusted Indicators

There is a big difference between First Pink Sheet performing well and First Niles Company doing well as a business compared to the competition. There are so many exceptions to the norm that investors cannot definitively determine what's good or bad unless they analyze First Niles' multiple risk-adjusted performance indicators across the competitive landscape. These indicators are quantitative in nature and help investors forecast volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across various positions.
Mean DeviationJensen AlphaSortino RatioTreynor RatioSemi DeviationExpected ShortfallPotential UpsideValue @RiskMaximum Drawdown
FSGB  0.21  0.04  0.00 (0.46) 0.00 
 1.05 
 4.26 
FPBC  0.34 (0.03) 0.00  3.08  0.00 
 0.95 
 5.29 
USMT  0.64  0.24  0.12  4.58  0.00 
 1.75 
 9.15 
SRNN  0.49  0.04  0.00 (0.21) 0.00 
 2.65 
 10.73 
TDCB  0.68  0.01 (0.03) 0.27  0.95 
 2.29 
 8.60 
MFDB  0.30  0.03  0.00 (0.10) 0.00 
 0.00 
 11.49 
ASCN  0.68  0.14  0.02 (0.60) 1.02 
 1.02 
 17.41 
FCPB  0.70 (0.03) 0.00  1.12  0.00 
 1.96 
 12.90 
LBNW  0.09  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
 0.65 
 0.83 
CABB  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
 0.00 
 0.00 

About First Niles Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of First Niles or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of First Niles may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to First's beta indicator, it measures the risk of First Niles and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of First Niles fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
First Niles Financial, Inc. operates as the holding company for the Home Federal Savings and Loan Association of Niles that provides various banking products and services. First Niles Financial, Inc. was founded in 1897 and is based in Niles, Ohio. First Niles operates under BanksRegional classification in the United States and is traded on OTC Exchange.
First Niles' stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on First Pink Sheet over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much First Niles' price varies over time.

3 ways to utilize First Niles' volatility to invest better

Higher First Niles' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of First Niles Financial stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. First Niles Financial stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:
  • Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of First Niles Financial investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
  • Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in First Niles' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
  • Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of First Niles' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Remember it's essential to remember that stock volatility is just one of many factors to consider when making investment decisions, and it should be used in conjunction with other fundamental and technical analysis tools.

First Niles Investment Opportunity

First Niles Financial has a volatility of 2.63 and is 3.65 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 23 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than First Niles. You can use First Niles Financial to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The pink sheet experiences a moderate downward daily trend which may be unreasonably hyped up. Check odds of First Niles to be traded at $7.88 in 90 days.

Good diversification

The correlation between First Niles Financial and DJI is -0.05 (i.e., Good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding First Niles Financial and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

First Niles Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Niles' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Niles' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of First Niles pink sheet's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential pink sheets, we recommend comparing similar pink sheets with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

First Niles Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against First Niles as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. First Niles' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, First Niles' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to First Niles Financial.

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When running First Niles' price analysis, check to measure First Niles' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Niles is operating at the current time. Most of First Niles' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Niles' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Niles' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Niles to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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