AAON Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AAON Stock | USD 95.24 1.87 2.00% |
AAON Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although AAON's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AAON's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AAON fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of AAON's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.45 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.42 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.984 | Wall Street Target Price 115.25 |
Using AAON hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AAON Inc from the perspective of AAON response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AAON using AAON's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AAON using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AAON's stock price.
AAON Short Interest
An investor who is long AAON may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AAON and may potentially protect profits, hedge AAON with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 87.9688 | Short Percent 0.1689 | Short Ratio 8.55 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.4 M | 50 Day MA 85.4918 |
AAON Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AAON Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 95.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.87.AAON Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AAON's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AAON. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AAON can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AAON Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AAON's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AAON.
AAON Implied Volatility | 0.64 |
AAON's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AAON Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AAON's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AAON stock will not fluctuate a lot when AAON's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AAON Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 95.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.87. AAON after-hype prediction price | USD 95.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAON to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AAON contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AAON Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.04% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With AAON trading at USD 95.24, that is roughly USD 0.0381 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AAON's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AAON Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.64%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 AAON Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AAON's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AAON's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AAON stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AAON's open interest, investors have to compare it to AAON's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AAON is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AAON. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AAON Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AAON price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AAON using various technical indicators. When you analyze AAON charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AAON Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AAON Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 95.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20, mean absolute percentage error of 7.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AAON Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AAON's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AAON Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AAON | AAON Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
AAON Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AAON's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AAON's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 92.50 and 97.98, respectively. We have considered AAON's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AAON stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AAON stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2738 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2087 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1978 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0251 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 131.87 |
Predictive Modules for AAON
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AAON Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AAON After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AAON at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AAON or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AAON, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AAON Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AAON's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AAON's historical news coverage. AAON's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 92.84 and 98.32, respectively. We have considered AAON's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AAON is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AAON Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
AAON Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AAON is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AAON backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AAON, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.74 | 0.34 | 0.11 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
95.24 | 95.58 | 0.36 |
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AAON Hype Timeline
AAON Inc is presently traded for 95.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. AAON is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 95.58 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 105.79%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.36%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.13%. The volatility of related hype on AAON is about 317.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 95.35. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.2 B. Net Income was 168.56 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 353.57 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAON to cross-verify your projections.AAON Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AAON's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AAON's future price movements. Getting to know how AAON's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AAON may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AWI | Armstrong World Industries | 0.27 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.43 | (2.15) | 7.39 | |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | (5.49) | 11 per month | 1.33 | 0.06 | 2.84 | (2.17) | 6.98 | |
| IESC | IES Holdings | (8.88) | 9 per month | 4.87 | 0.02 | 5.82 | (5.13) | 28.38 | |
| PRIM | Primoris Services | 4.74 | 9 per month | 3.47 | 0.01 | 5.21 | (5.37) | 14.82 | |
| FLR | Fluor | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.41 | (3.81) | 9.28 | |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech | 0.54 | 8 per month | 1.42 | 0.12 | 4.35 | (3.21) | 21.35 | |
| AEIS | Advanced Energy Industries | 15.40 | 11 per month | 2.64 | 0.09 | 6.03 | (5.04) | 21.74 | |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water | 0.42 | 9 per month | 0.96 | 0.06 | 2.02 | (1.75) | 5.35 | |
| DY | Dycom Industries | 0.78 | 11 per month | 2.22 | 0.13 | 3.29 | (4.19) | 14.96 | |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 0.97 | 14 per month | 1.30 | 0.09 | 3.91 | (2.20) | 10.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for AAON
For every potential investor in AAON, whether a beginner or expert, AAON's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AAON Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AAON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AAON's price trends.AAON Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AAON stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AAON could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AAON by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AAON Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AAON stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AAON shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AAON stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AAON Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 64737.47 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3482 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 94.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 94.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.9 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.87 |
AAON Risk Indicators
The analysis of AAON's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AAON's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aaon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Variance | 9.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AAON
The number of cover stories for AAON depends on current market conditions and AAON's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AAON is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AAON's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AAON Short Properties
AAON's future price predictability will typically decrease when AAON's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AAON Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AAON's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AAON's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 83.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAON to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Will Building Products sector continue expanding? Could AAON diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AAON. If investors know AAON will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every AAON data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Dividend Share 0.38 | Earnings Share 1.24 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.168 |
Investors evaluate AAON Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating AAON's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause AAON's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that AAON's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AAON represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, AAON's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.