Air Canada Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AC Stock | CAD 24.68 0.01 0.04% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Air Canada on the next trading day is expected to be 23.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.19. Air Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Air Canada's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Air Canada's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Air Canada fundamentals over time.
Air |
Air Canada Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Air Canada on the next trading day is expected to be 23.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Air Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Air Canada's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Air Canada Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Air Canada | Air Canada Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Air Canada Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Air Canada's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Air Canada's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.34 and 26.29, respectively. We have considered Air Canada's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Air Canada stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Air Canada stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8108 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.413 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0214 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.1949 |
Predictive Modules for Air Canada
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Canada. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air Canada's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Air Canada
For every potential investor in Air, whether a beginner or expert, Air Canada's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Air Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Air. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Air Canada's price trends.Air Canada Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Air Canada stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Air Canada could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Air Canada by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Air Canada Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Air Canada's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Air Canada's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Air Canada Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Air Canada stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Air Canada shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Air Canada stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Air Canada entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Air Canada Risk Indicators
The analysis of Air Canada's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Air Canada's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting air stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8853 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.45 | |||
| Variance | 6.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7837 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Air Canada
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Air Canada position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Air Canada will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Air Stock
| 0.92 | RY-PS | Royal Bank Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | RY | Royal Bank Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.9 | RY-PM | Royal Bank Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | TD-PFI | Toronto Dominion Bank | PairCorr |
Moving against Air Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Air Canada could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Air Canada when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Air Canada - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Air Canada to buy it.
The correlation of Air Canada is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Air Canada moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Air Canada moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Air Canada can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Air Stock
Air Canada financial ratios help investors to determine whether Air Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Air with respect to the benefits of owning Air Canada security.