Air Canada Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AC Stock | CAD 18.85 0.02 0.11% |
Air Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Air Canada's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Air Canada's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Air Canada fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Air Canada's share price is approaching 46. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Air Canada, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1731 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1793 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.1542 | Wall Street Target Price 24.5188 |
Using Air Canada hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Air Canada from the perspective of Air Canada response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Air Canada on the next trading day is expected to be 18.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.88. Air Canada after-hype prediction price | CAD 18.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Air |
Air Canada Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Air price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Air using various technical indicators. When you analyze Air charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Air Canada Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Air Canada on the next trading day is expected to be 18.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Air Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Air Canada's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Air Canada Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Air Canada | Air Canada Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Air Canada Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Air Canada's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Air Canada's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.18 and 20.38, respectively. We have considered Air Canada's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Air Canada stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Air Canada stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0427 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2522 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0133 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.8824 |
Predictive Modules for Air Canada
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Canada. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air Canada's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Air Canada After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Air Canada at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Air Canada or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Air Canada, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Air Canada Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Air Canada's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Air Canada's historical news coverage. Air Canada's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.26 and 20.46, respectively. We have considered Air Canada's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Air Canada is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Air Canada is based on 3 months time horizon.
Air Canada Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Air Canada is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Air Canada backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Air Canada, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.60 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.85 | 18.86 | 0.05 |
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Air Canada Hype Timeline
Air Canada is presently traded for 18.85on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Air is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Air Canada is about 101.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.88. The company reported the revenue of 22.25 B. Net Income was 1.72 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 6.13 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Air Canada to cross-verify your projections.Air Canada Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Air Canada's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Air Canada's future price movements. Getting to know how Air Canada's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Air Canada may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EIF | Exchange Income | 0.46 | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.21 | 2.98 | (2.23) | 5.90 | |
| BBD-B | Bombardier | 8.14 | 8 per month | 3.04 | 0.09 | 4.41 | (5.53) | 16.51 | |
| MDA | MDA | (0.31) | 9 per month | 3.65 | 0.05 | 6.46 | (5.29) | 19.11 | |
| BBU-UN | Brookfield Business Partners | 0.17 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.01 | (3.34) | 13.29 | |
| SES | Secure Energy Services | 0.06 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.68 | (3.17) | 8.07 | |
| CHR | Chorus Aviation | (0.20) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.20 | (2.52) | 11.55 | |
| CJT | Cargojet | 4.68 | 9 per month | 2.66 | 0.06 | 4.44 | (2.15) | 14.92 | |
| SOBO | South Bow | (0.43) | 8 per month | 1.22 | 0.07 | 1.65 | (1.99) | 8.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for Air Canada
For every potential investor in Air, whether a beginner or expert, Air Canada's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Air Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Air. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Air Canada's price trends.Air Canada Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Air Canada stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Air Canada could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Air Canada by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Air Canada Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Air Canada stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Air Canada shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Air Canada stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Air Canada entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Air Canada Risk Indicators
The analysis of Air Canada's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Air Canada's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting air stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Variance | 2.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Air Canada
The number of cover stories for Air Canada depends on current market conditions and Air Canada's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Air Canada is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Air Canada's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Air Canada Short Properties
Air Canada's future price predictability will typically decrease when Air Canada's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Air Canada often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Air Canada's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Canada's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 376 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7 B |
Other Information on Investing in Air Stock
Air Canada financial ratios help investors to determine whether Air Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Air with respect to the benefits of owning Air Canada security.