Aecom Technology Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ACM Stock | USD 96.73 0.35 0.36% |
Aecom Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Aecom Technology's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aecom Technology's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aecom Technology fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength momentum indicator of Aecom Technology's share price is approaching 34. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aecom Technology, making its price go up or down. Momentum 34
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2313 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.2641 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.1294 | Wall Street Target Price 130.3333 |
Using Aecom Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aecom Technology from the perspective of Aecom Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aecom Technology using Aecom Technology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aecom using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aecom Technology's stock price.
Aecom Technology Short Interest
An investor who is long Aecom Technology may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Aecom Technology and may potentially protect profits, hedge Aecom Technology with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 113.5241 | Short Percent 0.0398 | Short Ratio 2.69 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.4 M | 50 Day MA 103.6764 |
Aecom Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aecom Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 96.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.74.Aecom Technology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aecom Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aecom. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aecom can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aecom Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aecom Technology's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aecom Technology.
Aecom Technology Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Aecom Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aecom Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aecom Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aecom Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aecom Technology's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aecom Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 96.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.74. Aecom Technology after-hype prediction price | USD 97.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aecom Technology to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aecom contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aecom Technology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0325% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Aecom Technology trading at USD 96.73, that is roughly USD 0.0314 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aecom Technology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aecom Technology options at the current volatility level of 0.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Aecom Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aecom Technology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aecom Technology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aecom Technology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aecom Technology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Aecom Technology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aecom Technology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aecom. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aecom Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aecom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aecom using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aecom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aecom Technology Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aecom Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 96.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41, mean absolute percentage error of 5.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aecom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aecom Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aecom Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aecom Technology | Aecom Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aecom Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aecom Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aecom Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 94.73 and 98.73, respectively. We have considered Aecom Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aecom Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aecom Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0609 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.6057 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4123 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 84.74 |
Predictive Modules for Aecom Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aecom Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aecom Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aecom Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aecom Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aecom Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aecom Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aecom Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aecom Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aecom Technology's historical news coverage. Aecom Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 95.40 and 99.40, respectively. We have considered Aecom Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aecom Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aecom Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aecom Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aecom Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aecom Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aecom Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.50 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 12 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
96.73 | 97.40 | 0.69 |
|
Aecom Technology Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Aecom Technology is traded for 96.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.67, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.64. Aecom is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 97.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 148.15%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.69%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.5%. The volatility of related hype on Aecom Technology is about 157.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 97.37. The company reported the last year's revenue of 16.14 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 636.19 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.22 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aecom Technology to cross-verify your projections.Aecom Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aecom Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aecom Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Aecom Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aecom Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MTZ | MasTec Inc | (16.66) | 12 per month | 2.59 | 0.08 | 4.38 | (4.74) | 13.07 | |
| LII | Lennox International | 10.32 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.75 | (2.67) | 10.19 | |
| PNR | Pentair PLC | 1.15 | 11 per month | 1.45 | (0.06) | 2.77 | (2.39) | 7.55 | |
| SNA | Snap On | 0.43 | 9 per month | 0.79 | 0.06 | 1.94 | (1.45) | 3.63 | |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 3.33 | 9 per month | 0.61 | 0.17 | 2.87 | (1.70) | 22.91 | |
| EXPD | Expeditors International of | 2.02 | 10 per month | 0.75 | 0.19 | 2.46 | (2.00) | 13.29 | |
| FTAI | FTAI Aviation | 10.50 | 10 per month | 2.79 | 0.21 | 6.86 | (4.53) | 17.39 | |
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport | 1.00 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.15 | 3.32 | (1.54) | 6.61 | |
| APG | Api Group Corp | 0.71 | 13 per month | 1.33 | 0.12 | 3.57 | (2.53) | 8.44 | |
| STN | Stantec | (0.09) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.96 | (2.27) | 8.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aecom Technology
For every potential investor in Aecom, whether a beginner or expert, Aecom Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aecom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aecom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aecom Technology's price trends.Aecom Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aecom Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aecom Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aecom Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aecom Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aecom Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aecom Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aecom Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aecom Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 96.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 96.73 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.17) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.35) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.53 |
Aecom Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aecom Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aecom Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aecom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aecom Technology
The number of cover stories for Aecom Technology depends on current market conditions and Aecom Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aecom Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aecom Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Aecom Technology Short Properties
Aecom Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aecom Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aecom Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aecom Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aecom Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 133.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aecom Technology to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Aecom Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aecom Technology guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aecom Technology. If investors know Aecom will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aecom Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | Dividend Share 1.04 | Earnings Share 4.79 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.016 |
The market value of Aecom Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aecom that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aecom Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aecom Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aecom Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aecom Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aecom Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aecom Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aecom Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.