Adagene Stock Forward View
| ADAG Stock | USD 3.58 -0.03 -0.83% |
Naive Prediction is applied to Adagene's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The Naive Prediction model projects Adagene at 3.89 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This Naive Prediction output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Adagene at 3.89 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and sum of absolute errors of 10.66 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Adagene's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adagene | Adagene Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Adagene frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.04 and upside near 10.25. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Adagene stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0429 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1747 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0492 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.6567 |
Other Forecasting Options for Adagene
Adagene's daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Adagene often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Adagene Related Equities
These stocks within the Health Care space are often compared to Adagene by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Adagene's capital structure stacks up against similar firms.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adagene Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Adagene stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Adagene.
Adagene Risk Indicators
Assessing Adagene's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for adagene stock. The level of risk embedded in Adagene's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
| Mean Deviation | 4.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.36 | |||
| Variance | 40.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 24.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 18.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -5.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Adagene Short Properties
Short-interest data for Adagene reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.76 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 74.52 million |