Adagene Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ADAG Stock | USD 2.49 0.46 22.66% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Adagene on the next trading day is expected to be 2.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.85. Adagene Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Adagene's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the rsi of Adagene's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.65) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.72) | Wall Street Target Price 9.514 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.87) |
Using Adagene hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Adagene from the perspective of Adagene response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Adagene on the next trading day is expected to be 2.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.85. Adagene after-hype prediction price | USD 2.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adagene to cross-verify your projections. Adagene Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Adagene price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Adagene using various technical indicators. When you analyze Adagene charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adagene Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Adagene on the next trading day is expected to be 2.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adagene Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adagene's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adagene Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adagene | Adagene Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Adagene Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adagene's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adagene's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.36, respectively. We have considered Adagene's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adagene stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adagene stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.4574 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0132 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0992 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0536 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.85 |
Predictive Modules for Adagene
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adagene. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Adagene After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Adagene at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Adagene or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Adagene, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Adagene Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Adagene's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Adagene's historical news coverage. Adagene's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 8.33, respectively. We have considered Adagene's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Adagene is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Adagene is based on 3 months time horizon.
Adagene Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Adagene is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Adagene backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Adagene, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 6.10 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.49 | 2.23 | 2.29 |
|
Adagene Hype Timeline
Adagene is presently traded for 2.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Adagene is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 2.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 2.29%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.45%. The volatility of related hype on Adagene is about 2918.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.40. Adagene currently holds 18.49 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.15, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adagene to cross-verify your projections.Adagene Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Adagene's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Adagene's future price movements. Getting to know how Adagene's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Adagene may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XBIT | XBiotech | 0.46 | 5 per month | 3.28 | 0.02 | 6.67 | (5.88) | 28.09 | |
| CRVO | CervoMed | (1.10) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.31 | (5.54) | 17.75 | |
| GANX | Gain Therapeutics | (1.31) | 9 per month | 9.48 | 0.06 | 11.36 | (9.78) | 71.49 | |
| NTRB | Nutriband | 0.19 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 9.04 | (7.23) | 32.02 | |
| ACET | Adicet Bio | (0.52) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 6.18 | (7.60) | 16.66 | |
| FBIO | Fortress Biotech | 0.18 | 12 per month | 4.13 | 0.09 | 6.63 | (6.45) | 29.21 | |
| LITS | Lite Strategy | (0.05) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.73 | (9.52) | 26.34 | |
| TCRX | Tscan Therapeutics | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 9.62 | (9.68) | 40.38 | |
| OSTX | OS Therapies Incorporated | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 5.49 | (6.84) | 16.39 | |
| NRXP | NRX Pharmaceuticals | 0.05 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 7.34 | (8.02) | 21.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Adagene
For every potential investor in Adagene, whether a beginner or expert, Adagene's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adagene Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adagene. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adagene's price trends.Adagene Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adagene stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adagene could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adagene by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adagene Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adagene stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adagene shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adagene stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adagene entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Adagene Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adagene's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adagene's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adagene stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.98 | |||
| Variance | 35.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 32.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 28.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Adagene
The number of cover stories for Adagene depends on current market conditions and Adagene's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Adagene is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Adagene's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Adagene Short Properties
Adagene's future price predictability will typically decrease when Adagene's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Adagene often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Adagene's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adagene's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 85.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adagene to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Adagene Stock please use our How to Invest in Adagene guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adagene. If investors know Adagene will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adagene listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.64) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.87) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Adagene is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adagene that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adagene's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adagene's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adagene's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adagene's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adagene's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adagene is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adagene's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.