Adobe Systems Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ADBE Stock | USD 299.73 5.50 1.87% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Adobe Systems Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 299.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 314.53. Adobe Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Adobe Systems stock prices and determine the direction of Adobe Systems Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Adobe Systems' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of Adobe Systems' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.172 | EPS Estimate Current Year 23.4629 | EPS Estimate Next Year 26.3813 | Wall Street Target Price 421.3156 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 5.3974 |
Using Adobe Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Adobe Systems Incorporated from the perspective of Adobe Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Adobe Systems using Adobe Systems' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Adobe using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Adobe Systems' stock price.
Adobe Systems Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Adobe Systems' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Adobe. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Adobe Systems stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 358.4557 | Short Percent 0.0296 | Short Ratio 2.87 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.6 M | 50 Day MA 333.2292 |
Adobe Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Adobe Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Adobe. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Adobe can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Adobe Systems Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Adobe Systems Implied Volatility | 0.39 |
Adobe Systems' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Adobe Systems Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Adobe Systems' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Adobe Systems stock will not fluctuate a lot when Adobe Systems' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Adobe Systems Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 299.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 314.53. Adobe Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 298.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adobe Systems to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Adobe contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Adobe Systems Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0244% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Adobe Systems trading at USD 299.73, that is roughly USD 0.0731 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Adobe Systems' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Adobe Systems Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Adobe Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Adobe Systems' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Adobe Systems' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Adobe Systems stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Adobe Systems' open interest, investors have to compare it to Adobe Systems' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Adobe Systems is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Adobe. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Adobe Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Adobe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Adobe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Adobe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adobe Systems Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Adobe Systems Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 299.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.33, mean absolute percentage error of 52.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 314.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adobe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adobe Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adobe Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adobe Systems | Adobe Systems Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Adobe Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adobe Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adobe Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 297.86 and 301.60, respectively. We have considered Adobe Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adobe Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adobe Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3968 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.5121 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.3309 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 314.525 |
Predictive Modules for Adobe Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adobe Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Adobe Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Adobe Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Adobe Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Adobe Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Adobe Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Adobe Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Adobe Systems' historical news coverage. Adobe Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 296.69 and 300.45, respectively. We have considered Adobe Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Adobe Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Adobe Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Adobe Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Adobe Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Adobe Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Adobe Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.87 | 1.12 | 0.19 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
299.73 | 298.57 | 0.39 |
|
Adobe Systems Hype Timeline
Adobe Systems is presently traded for 299.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. Adobe is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 298.57. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 45.28%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.39%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Adobe Systems is about 272.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 299.92. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.82. Adobe Systems recorded earning per share (EPS) of 16.71. The entity last dividend was issued on the 24th of March 2005. The firm had 2:1 split on the 24th of May 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adobe Systems to cross-verify your projections.Adobe Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Adobe Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Adobe Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Adobe Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Adobe Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRT | Marti Technologies | (0.01) | 8 per month | 2.43 | (0.03) | 7.59 | (4.02) | 20.77 | |
| TIMB | TIM Participacoes SA | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.90 | 0.03 | 3.06 | (2.72) | 8.26 | |
| CCCC | C4 Therapeutics | 0.36 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.16 | (7.32) | 24.93 | |
| HOLO | MicroCloud Hologram | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.57 | (8.22) | 15.30 | |
| ABSOF | ABS CBN Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 40.00 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.79 | 0.12 | 2.53 | (1.59) | 11.64 | |
| FGRO | Fidelity Growth Opportunities | (0.18) | 2 per month | 17.20 | 0.17 | 1.35 | (1.60) | 5,625 | |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Holdings | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.12 | (2.93) | 10.93 | |
| LSIIX | Loomis Sayles Investment | 6.10 | 5 per month | 0.16 | (0.59) | 0.20 | (0.30) | 0.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for Adobe Systems
For every potential investor in Adobe, whether a beginner or expert, Adobe Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adobe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adobe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adobe Systems' price trends.Adobe Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adobe Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adobe Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adobe Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adobe Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adobe Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adobe Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adobe Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adobe Systems Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Adobe Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adobe Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adobe Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adobe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.7 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Adobe Systems
The number of cover stories for Adobe Systems depends on current market conditions and Adobe Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Adobe Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Adobe Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Adobe Systems Short Properties
Adobe Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Adobe Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Adobe Systems Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Adobe Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adobe Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 427 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adobe Systems to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adobe Systems. If investors know Adobe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adobe Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.172 | Earnings Share 16.71 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.105 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Adobe Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adobe that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adobe Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adobe Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adobe Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adobe Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adobe Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adobe Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adobe Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.