Analog Devices Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ADI Stock | USD 325.16 2.19 0.68% |
Analog Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Analog Devices' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 10th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Analog Devices' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Analog Devices hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Analog Devices from the perspective of Analog Devices response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Analog Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 326.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 241.06. Analog Devices after-hype prediction price | USD 330.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Analog Devices to cross-verify your projections. Analog Devices Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Analog price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Analog using various technical indicators. When you analyze Analog charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Analog Devices Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Analog Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 326.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.09, mean absolute percentage error of 28.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 241.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Analog Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Analog Devices' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Analog Devices Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Analog Devices | Analog Devices Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Analog Devices Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Analog Devices' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Analog Devices' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 324.81 and 328.48, respectively. We have considered Analog Devices' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Analog Devices stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Analog Devices stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5307 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.0858 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0146 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 241.0649 |
Predictive Modules for Analog Devices
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Analog Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Analog Devices' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Analog Devices After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Analog Devices at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Analog Devices or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Analog Devices, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Analog Devices Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Analog Devices' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Analog Devices' historical news coverage. Analog Devices' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 293.23 and 332.65, respectively. We have considered Analog Devices' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Analog Devices is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Analog Devices is based on 3 months time horizon.
Analog Devices Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Analog Devices is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Analog Devices backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Analog Devices, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.51 | 1.83 | 0.00 | 2.59 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
325.16 | 330.80 | 1.53 |
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Analog Devices Hype Timeline
On the 10th of February Analog Devices is traded for 325.16. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -2.59. Analog is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 330.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.53%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.51%. The volatility of related hype on Analog Devices is about 35.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 322.57. The company reported the last year's revenue of 11.02 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.27 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 6.77 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Analog Devices to cross-verify your projections.Analog Devices Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Analog Devices' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Analog Devices' future price movements. Getting to know how Analog Devices' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Analog Devices may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 0.79 | 6 per month | 0.90 | 0.18 | 4.22 | (2.24) | 11.75 | |
| DELL | Dell Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.17 | (5.45) | 13.28 | |
| KLAC | KLA Tencor | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.72 | 0.07 | 5.69 | (4.20) | 22.94 | |
| MSTR | MicroStrategy Incorporated | (6.79) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.78 | (8.14) | 23.75 | |
| CDNS | Cadence Design Systems | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.46 | (3.29) | 12.87 | |
| SNPS | Synopsys | (25.34) | 12 per month | 2.51 | 0.02 | 3.80 | (4.05) | 13.31 | |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.19 | (5.61) | 15.18 | |
| NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV | 0.89 | 7 per month | 1.75 | 0.05 | 4.62 | (3.09) | 14.37 | |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV ADR | (0.23) | 8 per month | 1.66 | 0.17 | 5.51 | (3.16) | 12.93 | |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | (20.18) | 6 per month | 2.48 | 0.06 | 4.37 | (4.47) | 11.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Analog Devices
For every potential investor in Analog, whether a beginner or expert, Analog Devices' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Analog Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Analog. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Analog Devices' price trends.Analog Devices Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Analog Devices stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Analog Devices could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Analog Devices by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Analog Devices Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Analog Devices stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Analog Devices shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Analog Devices stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Analog Devices entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 53563.72 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3308 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 323.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 323.76 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 3.2 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.19 |
Analog Devices Risk Indicators
The analysis of Analog Devices' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Analog Devices' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting analog stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Variance | 3.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Analog Devices
The number of cover stories for Analog Devices depends on current market conditions and Analog Devices' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Analog Devices is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Analog Devices' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Analog Devices Short Properties
Analog Devices' future price predictability will typically decrease when Analog Devices' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Analog Devices often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Analog Devices' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Analog Devices' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 496.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Analog Devices to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Analog Stock please use our How to Invest in Analog Devices guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is there potential for Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment market expansion? Will Analog introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Analog Devices. If investors know Analog will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Analog Devices listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Understanding Analog Devices requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Analog's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Analog Devices' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Analog Devices' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Analog Devices' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Analog Devices represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Analog Devices' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.