Agnico Eagle Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AEM Stock | USD 83.57 0.77 0.93% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Agnico Eagle Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 83.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.87. Agnico Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Agnico Eagle's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Agnico Eagle's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agnico Eagle fundamentals over time.
Agnico |
Agnico Eagle Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Agnico Eagle Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 83.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20, mean absolute percentage error of 2.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agnico Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agnico Eagle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agnico Eagle Stock Forecast Pattern
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Agnico Eagle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agnico Eagle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agnico Eagle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 81.79 and 85.56, respectively. We have considered Agnico Eagle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agnico Eagle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agnico Eagle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2149 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1979 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0146 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 71.8735 |
Predictive Modules for Agnico Eagle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agnico Eagle Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agnico Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Agnico Eagle
For every potential investor in Agnico, whether a beginner or expert, Agnico Eagle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agnico Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agnico. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agnico Eagle's price trends.Agnico Eagle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agnico Eagle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agnico Eagle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agnico Eagle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agnico Eagle Mines Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agnico Eagle's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agnico Eagle's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agnico Eagle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agnico Eagle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agnico Eagle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agnico Eagle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agnico Eagle Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Agnico Eagle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agnico Eagle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agnico Eagle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agnico stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Variance | 3.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agnico Eagle. If investors know Agnico will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agnico Eagle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.245 | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 1.98 | Revenue Per Share 15.68 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.312 |
The market value of Agnico Eagle Mines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agnico that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agnico Eagle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agnico Eagle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agnico Eagle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agnico Eagle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agnico Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agnico Eagle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agnico Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.