AmTrust Financial Pink Sheet Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

A four-period moving average forecast model for AmTrust Financial Services is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

AmTrust Financial 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of AmTrust Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 15.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.29.

AmTrust Financial Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest AmTrust Financial

AmTrust Financial Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

AmTrust Financial Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AmTrust Financial pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AmTrust Financial pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of AmTrust Financial. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for AmTrust Financial Services and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for AmTrust Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmTrust Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 13.53 14.85 16.17 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 13.42 14.74 16.06 Details

Other Forecasting Options for AmTrust Financial

For every potential investor in AmTrust, whether a beginner or expert, AmTrust Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AmTrust Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AmTrust. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AmTrust Financial's price trends.

AmTrust Financial Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

AmTrust Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AmTrust Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AmTrust Financial's current price.

AmTrust Financial Market Strength Events

AmTrust Financial Risk Indicators

Other Information on Investing in AmTrust Pink Sheet