AmTrust Financial Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| AFSIM Stock | USD 15.40 0.40 2.67% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AmTrust Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 15.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.37. AmTrust Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of AmTrust Financial's share price is at 54. This suggests that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AmTrust Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AmTrust Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AmTrust Financial Services from the perspective of AmTrust Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AmTrust Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 15.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.37. AmTrust Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 15.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AmTrust |
AmTrust Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AmTrust price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AmTrust using various technical indicators. When you analyze AmTrust charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AmTrust Financial Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AmTrust Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 15.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AmTrust Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AmTrust Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AmTrust Financial Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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AmTrust Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AmTrust Financial's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AmTrust Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.56 and 17.84, respectively. We have considered AmTrust Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AmTrust Financial pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AmTrust Financial pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.516 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0177 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2604 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.365 |
Predictive Modules for AmTrust Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmTrust Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AmTrust Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AmTrust Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AmTrust Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of AmTrust Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AmTrust Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AmTrust Financial's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AmTrust Financial's historical news coverage. AmTrust Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.76 and 18.04, respectively. We have considered AmTrust Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AmTrust Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AmTrust Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
AmTrust Financial Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AmTrust Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AmTrust Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AmTrust Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.40 | 15.40 | 0.00 |
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AmTrust Financial Hype Timeline
AmTrust Financial is presently traded for 15.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. AmTrust is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on AmTrust Financial is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.40. The company last dividend was issued on the 28th of February 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AmTrust Financial to cross-verify your projections.AmTrust Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AmTrust Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AmTrust Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how AmTrust Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AmTrust Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AFSIC | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.86 | (0.0006) | 5.16 | (5.48) | 13.82 | |
| AFSIP | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.76 | (0.02) | 4.05 | (3.89) | 14.05 | |
| AFSIB | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | (0.06) | 2.75 | (1.79) | 9.47 | |
| AFSIN | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.85 | (5.66) | 39.17 | |
| AFSIA | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.31 | (2.79) | 11.55 | |
| INFFF | Intact Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.38) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.74 | |
| AFFS | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.29 | (0.24) | 0.63 | (0.62) | 2.47 | |
| QUCOF | Qulitas Controladora SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 142.86 | |
| MNGPF | Man Group plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 3.17 | (1.05) | 9.35 | |
| CFIGY | Challenger Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for AmTrust Financial
For every potential investor in AmTrust, whether a beginner or expert, AmTrust Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AmTrust Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AmTrust. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AmTrust Financial's price trends.AmTrust Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AmTrust Financial pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AmTrust Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AmTrust Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AmTrust Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AmTrust Financial pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AmTrust Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AmTrust Financial pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify AmTrust Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.2 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.4 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.44 |
AmTrust Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of AmTrust Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AmTrust Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amtrust pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Variance | 6.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AmTrust Financial
The number of cover stories for AmTrust Financial depends on current market conditions and AmTrust Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AmTrust Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AmTrust Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in AmTrust Pink Sheet
AmTrust Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether AmTrust Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AmTrust with respect to the benefits of owning AmTrust Financial security.