Assured Guaranty Stock Forward View - Accumulation Distribution
| AGO Stock | USD 86.67 0.12 0.14% |
Assured Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Assured Guaranty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Assured Guaranty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Assured Guaranty fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Assured Guaranty's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5872 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.3168 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.245 | Wall Street Target Price 107 |
Using Assured Guaranty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Assured Guaranty from the perspective of Assured Guaranty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Assured Guaranty using Assured Guaranty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Assured using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Assured Guaranty's stock price.
Assured Guaranty Short Interest
An investor who is long Assured Guaranty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Assured Guaranty and may potentially protect profits, hedge Assured Guaranty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 85.2361 | Short Percent 0.0416 | Short Ratio 3.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 948.7 K | 50 Day MA 88.1126 |
Assured Relative Strength Index
Assured Guaranty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Assured Guaranty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Assured. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Assured can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Assured Guaranty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Assured Guaranty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Assured Guaranty.
Assured Guaranty Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Assured Guaranty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Assured Guaranty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Assured Guaranty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Assured Guaranty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Assured Guaranty's options are near their expiration.
Assured Guaranty after-hype prediction price | USD 86.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Assured Guaranty to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Assured contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Assured Guaranty will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Assured Guaranty trading at USD 86.67, that is roughly USD 0.0271 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Assured Guaranty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Assured Guaranty options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Assured Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Assured Guaranty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Assured Guaranty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Assured Guaranty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Assured Guaranty's open interest, investors have to compare it to Assured Guaranty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Assured Guaranty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Assured. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Assured Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Assured price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Assured using various technical indicators. When you analyze Assured charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Previous Accumulation Distribution | Accumulation Distribution | Trend |
| 2071.04 | 1844.58 |
| Check Assured Guaranty Volatility | Backtest Assured Guaranty | Information Ratio |
Assured Guaranty Trading Date Momentum
| On February 11 2026 Assured Guaranty was traded for 86.67 at the closing time. Highest Assured Guaranty's price during the trading hours was 87.00 and the lowest price during the day was 85.79 . The net volume was 132.6 K. The overall trading history on the 11th of February 2026 did not affect price variability. The overall trading delta to current price is 0.22% . |
Accumulation distribution indicator can signal that a trend is either nearing completion, at a continuation, or is about to break-outs. The actual value of this indicator is of no significance. What is significant is the change in value of over time. The formula for A/D of a given trading day can be expressed as follow: ((Close - Low) - (High - Close)) / (High - Low) X Volume
| Compare Assured Guaranty to competition |
Other Forecasting Options for Assured Guaranty
For every potential investor in Assured, whether a beginner or expert, Assured Guaranty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Assured Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Assured. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Assured Guaranty's price trends.Assured Guaranty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Assured Guaranty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Assured Guaranty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Assured Guaranty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Assured Guaranty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Assured Guaranty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Assured Guaranty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Assured Guaranty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Assured Guaranty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1844.58 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0992 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 86.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 86.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.12 |
Assured Guaranty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Assured Guaranty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Assured Guaranty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting assured stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8526 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Variance | 1.77 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.98) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Assured Guaranty
The number of cover stories for Assured Guaranty depends on current market conditions and Assured Guaranty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Assured Guaranty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Assured Guaranty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Assured Guaranty Short Properties
Assured Guaranty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Assured Guaranty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Assured Guaranty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Assured Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Assured Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Assured Guaranty to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Will Property & Casualty Insurance sector continue expanding? Could Assured diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Assured Guaranty data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Dividend Share 1.33 | Earnings Share 8.17 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
Investors evaluate Assured Guaranty using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Assured Guaranty's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Assured Guaranty's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Assured Guaranty represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Assured Guaranty's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.