Atrium Mortgage Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AI Stock | CAD 11.30 0.04 0.36% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atrium Mortgage Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 11.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.00. Atrium Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Atrium Mortgage's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Atrium Mortgage's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Atrium Mortgage fundamentals over time.
Atrium |
Atrium Mortgage Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atrium Mortgage Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 11.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atrium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atrium Mortgage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Atrium Mortgage Stock Forecast Pattern
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Atrium Mortgage Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Atrium Mortgage's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atrium Mortgage's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.65 and 11.95, respectively. We have considered Atrium Mortgage's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atrium Mortgage stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atrium Mortgage stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8958 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.001 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0492 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0044 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.0 |
Predictive Modules for Atrium Mortgage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atrium Mortgage Inve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atrium Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Atrium Mortgage
For every potential investor in Atrium, whether a beginner or expert, Atrium Mortgage's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atrium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atrium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atrium Mortgage's price trends.Atrium Mortgage Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atrium Mortgage stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atrium Mortgage could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atrium Mortgage by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Atrium Mortgage Inve Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Atrium Mortgage's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Atrium Mortgage's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Atrium Mortgage Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atrium Mortgage stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atrium Mortgage shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atrium Mortgage stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atrium Mortgage Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1629.38 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.31 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.04 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.66 |
Atrium Mortgage Risk Indicators
The analysis of Atrium Mortgage's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atrium Mortgage's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting atrium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4592 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6715 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6835 | |||
| Variance | 0.4672 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5971 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.451 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Atrium Mortgage
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Atrium Mortgage position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Atrium Mortgage will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Atrium Mortgage could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Atrium Mortgage when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Atrium Mortgage - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Atrium Mortgage Investment to buy it.
The correlation of Atrium Mortgage is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Atrium Mortgage moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Atrium Mortgage Inve moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Atrium Mortgage can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Atrium Stock
Atrium Mortgage financial ratios help investors to determine whether Atrium Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Atrium with respect to the benefits of owning Atrium Mortgage security.