AAR Corp Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AIR Stock | USD 105.91 0.76 0.71% |
AAR Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although AAR Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AAR Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AAR Corp fundamentals over time.
The relative strength indicator of AAR Corp's stock price is slightly above 66. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling AAR, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.92 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.7071 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.5029 | Wall Street Target Price 110.6667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.0383 |
Using AAR Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AAR Corp from the perspective of AAR Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AAR Corp using AAR Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AAR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AAR Corp's stock price.
AAR Corp Short Interest
An investor who is long AAR Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AAR Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge AAR Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 76.8142 | Short Percent 0.0363 | Short Ratio 2.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 89.4224 |
AAR Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AAR Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 106.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.60.AAR Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AAR Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AAR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AAR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AAR Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AAR Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AAR Corp.
AAR Corp Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
AAR Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AAR Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AAR Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AAR Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when AAR Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AAR Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 106.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.60. AAR Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 105.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAR Corp to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AAR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AAR Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With AAR Corp trading at USD 105.91, that is roughly USD 0.0271 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AAR Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AAR Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 AAR Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AAR Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AAR Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AAR Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AAR Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to AAR Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AAR Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AAR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AAR Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze AAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AAR Corp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AAR Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 106.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50, mean absolute percentage error of 3.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AAR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AAR Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AAR Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AAR Corp | AAR Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AAR Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AAR Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AAR Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 104.53 and 108.48, respectively. We have considered AAR Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AAR Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AAR Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2278 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5017 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 88.6004 |
Predictive Modules for AAR Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AAR Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AAR Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AAR Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AAR Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AAR Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AAR Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AAR Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AAR Corp's historical news coverage. AAR Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 103.93 and 107.89, respectively. We have considered AAR Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AAR Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AAR Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
AAR Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AAR Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AAR Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AAR Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 1.98 | 3.30 | 0.05 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
105.91 | 105.91 | 0.00 |
|
AAR Corp Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February AAR Corp is traded for 105.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. AAR is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 21.57%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on AAR Corp is about 1445.26%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 105.86. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AAR Corp was presently reported as 39.99. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.41. AAR Corp last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2020. The entity had 3:2 split on the 24th of February 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAR Corp to cross-verify your projections.AAR Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AAR Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AAR Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how AAR Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AAR Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| POWW | Ammo Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.88 | 0.02 | 5.59 | (4.71) | 14.96 | |
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | (0.59) | 7 per month | 1.85 | 0.11 | 4.86 | (3.15) | 12.12 | |
| FLY | Firefly Aerospace Common | (1.12) | 17 per month | 7.14 | 0.04 | 16.02 | (13.49) | 36.50 | |
| AZZ | AZZ Incorporated | 0.56 | 29 per month | 1.00 | 0.18 | 3.39 | (1.98) | 8.55 | |
| CBZ | CBIZ Inc | 0.37 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.84 | (4.64) | 14.71 | |
| TEX | Terex | (0.21) | 10 per month | 3.30 | (0.01) | 4.00 | (3.23) | 15.69 | |
| PLUG | Plug Power | 0.28 | 28 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.91 | (8.79) | 24.67 | |
| TNET | TriNet Group | (1.22) | 10 per month | 2.48 | (0.01) | 4.47 | (3.35) | 10.68 | |
| MATX | Matson Inc | 0.56 | 11 per month | 0.63 | 0.28 | 3.81 | (2.04) | 15.21 | |
| SXI | Standex International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.03 | 0.03 | 3.21 | (2.82) | 12.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for AAR Corp
For every potential investor in AAR, whether a beginner or expert, AAR Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AAR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AAR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AAR Corp's price trends.AAR Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AAR Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AAR Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AAR Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AAR Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AAR Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AAR Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AAR Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AAR Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AAR Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of AAR Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AAR Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AAR Corp
The number of cover stories for AAR Corp depends on current market conditions and AAR Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AAR Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AAR Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
AAR Corp Short Properties
AAR Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when AAR Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AAR Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AAR Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AAR Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 96.5 M |
Additional Tools for AAR Stock Analysis
When running AAR Corp's price analysis, check to measure AAR Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AAR Corp is operating at the current time. Most of AAR Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AAR Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AAR Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AAR Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.