Allot Communications Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ALLT Stock | USD 10.61 0.29 2.81% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Allot Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 10.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.85. Allot Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Allot Communications' share price is at 54. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Allot Communications, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Allot Communications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allot Communications from the perspective of Allot Communications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Allot Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 10.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.85. Allot Communications after-hype prediction price | USD 10.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allot Communications to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Allot Stock please use our How to Invest in Allot Communications guide.Allot Communications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allot price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allot using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allot charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allot Communications Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Allot Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 10.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allot Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allot Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allot Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allot Communications | Allot Communications Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Allot Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allot Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allot Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.20 and 13.73, respectively. We have considered Allot Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allot Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allot Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.4962 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0071 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2686 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0274 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.85 |
Predictive Modules for Allot Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allot Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Allot Communications After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Allot Communications at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allot Communications or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allot Communications, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Allot Communications Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Allot Communications' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allot Communications' historical news coverage. Allot Communications' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.34 and 13.88, respectively. We have considered Allot Communications' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Allot Communications is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allot Communications is based on 3 months time horizon.
Allot Communications Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Allot Communications is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allot Communications backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allot Communications, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 3.27 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.61 | 10.61 | 0.00 |
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Allot Communications Hype Timeline
Allot Communications is presently traded for 10.61. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Allot is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Allot Communications is about 4605.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.62. About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Allot Communications was presently reported as 2.64. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.53. Allot Communications had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allot Communications to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Allot Stock please use our How to Invest in Allot Communications guide.Allot Communications Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Allot Communications' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allot Communications' future price movements. Getting to know how Allot Communications' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allot Communications may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ATGL | Alpha Technology Group | (0.14) | 27 per month | 7.45 | 0.06 | 12.37 | (9.79) | 151.54 | |
| BAND | Bandwidth | (0.03) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.29 | (3.75) | 12.36 | |
| GRRR | Gorilla Technology Group | (0.14) | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.43 | (7.66) | 19.51 | |
| FNCHF | FINEOS Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.76 | |
| CGNT | Cognyte Software | 1.56 | 27 per month | 2.20 | 0.04 | 2.97 | (3.75) | 13.68 | |
| CCSI | Consensus Cloud Solutions | (0.44) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.56 | (5.06) | 20.98 | |
| BLZE | Backblaze | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.46 | (6.25) | 42.64 | |
| RPAY | Repay Holdings Corp | (0.14) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.79 | (7.59) | 16.12 | |
| PRTH | Priority Technology Holdings | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.63 | (4.74) | 34.79 | |
| TDCSF | TDC SOFT | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Allot Communications
For every potential investor in Allot, whether a beginner or expert, Allot Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allot Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allot. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allot Communications' price trends.Allot Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allot Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allot Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allot Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allot Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allot Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allot Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allot Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allot Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Allot Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allot Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allot Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allot stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.27 | |||
| Variance | 10.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Allot Communications
The number of cover stories for Allot Communications depends on current market conditions and Allot Communications' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allot Communications is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allot Communications' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Allot Communications Short Properties
Allot Communications' future price predictability will typically decrease when Allot Communications' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Allot Communications often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Allot Communications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allot Communications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 57.9 M |
Additional Tools for Allot Stock Analysis
When running Allot Communications' price analysis, check to measure Allot Communications' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allot Communications is operating at the current time. Most of Allot Communications' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allot Communications' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allot Communications' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allot Communications to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.