Ambarella Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| AMBA Stock | USD 65.90 0.79 1.18% |
Ambarella Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ambarella stock prices and determine the direction of Ambarella's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ambarella's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the value of RSI of Ambarella's share price is approaching 42. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ambarella, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ambarella hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ambarella from the perspective of Ambarella response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Ambarella on the next trading day is expected to be 66.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.75. Ambarella after-hype prediction price | USD 65.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Ambarella Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ambarella price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ambarella using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ambarella charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ambarella Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Ambarella on the next trading day is expected to be 66.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.09, mean absolute percentage error of 18.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ambarella Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ambarella's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ambarella Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ambarella Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ambarella's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ambarella's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 62.32 and 70.70, respectively. We have considered Ambarella's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ambarella stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ambarella stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0324 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0942 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0395 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 188.745 |
Predictive Modules for Ambarella
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ambarella. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ambarella After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ambarella at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ambarella or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ambarella, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ambarella Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ambarella's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ambarella's historical news coverage. Ambarella's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 61.71 and 70.09, respectively. We have considered Ambarella's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ambarella is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ambarella is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ambarella Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ambarella is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ambarella backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ambarella, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 4.19 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
65.90 | 65.90 | 0.00 |
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Ambarella Hype Timeline
Ambarella is presently traded for 65.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.24. Ambarella is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ambarella is about 566.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 66.14. About 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Ambarella was presently reported as 13.71. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 202.7. Ambarella recorded a loss per share of 1.88. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ambarella to cross-verify your projections.Ambarella Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ambarella's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ambarella's future price movements. Getting to know how Ambarella's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ambarella may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IPGP | IPG Photonics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.46 | 0.04 | 3.62 | (4.00) | 12.41 | |
| SLAB | Silicon Laboratories | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.86 | 0.08 | 4.49 | (3.26) | 11.70 | |
| SIMO | Silicon Motion Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.69 | 0.08 | 4.25 | (5.47) | 23.47 | |
| SYNA | Synaptics Incorporated | 7.61 | 9 per month | 2.31 | 0.09 | 7.07 | (3.88) | 15.42 | |
| GBTG | Global Business Travel | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.82 | (4.10) | 13.45 | |
| NIQ | NIQ Global Intelligence | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.63 | 0.22 | 4.93 | (3.05) | 10.33 | |
| COMM | COMM Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.41 | 0.14 | 4.14 | (4.01) | 15.17 | |
| NVTS | Navitas Semiconductor Corp | (0.22) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 12.60 | (9.92) | 32.37 | |
| FORM | FormFactor | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.84 | 0.13 | 6.11 | (3.84) | 16.67 | |
| VRRM | Verra Mobility Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.25 | (2.63) | 7.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ambarella
For every potential investor in Ambarella, whether a beginner or expert, Ambarella's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ambarella Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ambarella. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ambarella's price trends.Ambarella Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ambarella stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ambarella could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ambarella by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ambarella Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ambarella stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ambarella shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ambarella stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ambarella entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ambarella Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ambarella's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ambarella's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ambarella stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.19 | |||
| Variance | 17.55 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ambarella
The number of cover stories for Ambarella depends on current market conditions and Ambarella's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ambarella is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ambarella's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ambarella Short Properties
Ambarella's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ambarella's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ambarella often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ambarella's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambarella's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 250.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ambarella to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ambarella Stock refer to our How to Trade Ambarella Stock guide.You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ambarella. If investors know Ambarella will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Ambarella assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Ambarella's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Ambarella's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Ambarella's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Ambarella's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Ambarella's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Ambarella represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Ambarella's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.