Amplitude Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

AMPL Stock  USD 9.90  0.13  1.30%   
Amplitude Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Amplitude's share price is approaching 44. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Amplitude, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 44

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Amplitude's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Amplitude and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Amplitude's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amplitude, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Amplitude hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amplitude from the perspective of Amplitude response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amplitude on the next trading day is expected to be 9.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.07.

Amplitude after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.9  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amplitude to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Amplitude Stock please use our How to buy in Amplitude Stock guide.

Amplitude Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Amplitude price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amplitude using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amplitude charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Amplitude - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Amplitude prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Amplitude price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Amplitude.

Amplitude Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amplitude on the next trading day is expected to be 9.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amplitude Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amplitude's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amplitude Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Amplitude  Amplitude Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Amplitude Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amplitude's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amplitude's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.00 and 12.68, respectively. We have considered Amplitude's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.90
9.84
Expected Value
12.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amplitude stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amplitude stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0596
MADMean absolute deviation0.2555
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0238
SAESum of the absolute errors15.073
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Amplitude observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Amplitude observations.

Predictive Modules for Amplitude

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amplitude. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.069.9012.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.828.6611.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.4110.8412.27
Details

Amplitude After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Amplitude at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amplitude or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amplitude, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Amplitude Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Amplitude's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amplitude's historical news coverage. Amplitude's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.06 and 12.74, respectively. We have considered Amplitude's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.90
9.90
After-hype Price
12.74
Upside
Amplitude is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amplitude is based on 3 months time horizon.

Amplitude Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amplitude is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amplitude backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amplitude, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
2.84
 0.00  
  0.02 
0 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.90
9.90
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Amplitude Hype Timeline

Amplitude is presently traded for 9.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Amplitude is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Amplitude is about 940.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.88. About 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.8. Amplitude last dividend was issued on the December 14, 1989. The entity had 1:20 split on the 23rd of July 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amplitude to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Amplitude Stock please use our How to buy in Amplitude Stock guide.

Amplitude Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Amplitude's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amplitude's future price movements. Getting to know how Amplitude's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amplitude may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Amplitude

For every potential investor in Amplitude, whether a beginner or expert, Amplitude's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amplitude Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amplitude. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amplitude's price trends.

Amplitude Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amplitude stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amplitude could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amplitude by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amplitude Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amplitude stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amplitude shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amplitude stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amplitude entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amplitude Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amplitude's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amplitude's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amplitude stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Amplitude

The number of cover stories for Amplitude depends on current market conditions and Amplitude's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amplitude is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amplitude's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Amplitude Short Properties

Amplitude's future price predictability will typically decrease when Amplitude's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amplitude often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amplitude's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amplitude's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding123.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments241.1 M
When determining whether Amplitude is a strong investment it is important to analyze Amplitude's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Amplitude's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Amplitude Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amplitude to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Amplitude Stock please use our How to buy in Amplitude Stock guide.
You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amplitude. If investors know Amplitude will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Amplitude assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
The market value of Amplitude is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amplitude that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amplitude's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amplitude's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amplitude's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amplitude's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Amplitude's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Amplitude represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Amplitude's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.