AMTD IDEA Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AMTD Stock | USD 1.01 0.01 1.00% |
AMTD Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AMTD IDEA stock prices and determine the direction of AMTD IDEA Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AMTD IDEA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of AMTD IDEA's share price is approaching 43. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AMTD IDEA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Wall Street Target Price 9 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.168 |
Using AMTD IDEA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AMTD IDEA Group from the perspective of AMTD IDEA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AMTD IDEA Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.94. AMTD IDEA after-hype prediction price | USD 1.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMTD IDEA to cross-verify your projections. AMTD IDEA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AMTD price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AMTD using various technical indicators. When you analyze AMTD charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AMTD IDEA Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AMTD IDEA Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMTD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMTD IDEA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AMTD IDEA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMTD IDEA | AMTD IDEA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AMTD IDEA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AMTD IDEA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AMTD IDEA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.02, respectively. We have considered AMTD IDEA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMTD IDEA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMTD IDEA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.007 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0329 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0319 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.9425 |
Predictive Modules for AMTD IDEA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMTD IDEA Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMTD IDEA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMTD IDEA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AMTD IDEA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AMTD IDEA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AMTD IDEA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AMTD IDEA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AMTD IDEA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AMTD IDEA's historical news coverage. AMTD IDEA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 5.04, respectively. We have considered AMTD IDEA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AMTD IDEA is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AMTD IDEA Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
AMTD IDEA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AMTD IDEA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AMTD IDEA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AMTD IDEA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 4.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.01 | 1.02 | 2.41 |
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AMTD IDEA Hype Timeline
AMTD IDEA Group is presently traded for 1.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. AMTD is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 2.41%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.34%. The volatility of related hype on AMTD IDEA is about 5095.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.98. AMTD IDEA Group currently holds 283.49 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.02, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMTD IDEA to cross-verify your projections.AMTD IDEA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AMTD IDEA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AMTD IDEA's future price movements. Getting to know how AMTD IDEA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AMTD IDEA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BENF | Beneficient Class A | 0.32 | 10 per month | 11.15 | 0 | 22.05 | (16.35) | 78.66 | |
| SZZLR | Sizzle Acquisition Corp | 0.01 | 5 per month | 7.20 | 0.06 | 25.00 | (12.50) | 53.33 | |
| ETHZ | ETHZilla | (0.56) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 12.34 | (12.25) | 34.21 | |
| IPOD | Dune Acquisition | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 0.39 | (0.29) | 0.88 | |
| SHFS | SHF Holdings | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 11.07 | (10.16) | 34.34 | |
| IMSRW | Terrestrial Energy | (0.19) | 7 per month | 11.44 | 0.01 | 22.83 | (17.74) | 60.52 | |
| LPAAW | Launch One Acquisition | 0.03 | 5 per month | 7.11 | 0.1 | 13.64 | (12.00) | 47.09 | |
| ZBAI | ATIF Holdings Limited | (0.40) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.58 | (9.31) | 30.10 | |
| LWAC | LightWave Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for AMTD IDEA
For every potential investor in AMTD, whether a beginner or expert, AMTD IDEA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AMTD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AMTD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AMTD IDEA's price trends.AMTD IDEA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AMTD IDEA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AMTD IDEA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AMTD IDEA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMTD IDEA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AMTD IDEA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AMTD IDEA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AMTD IDEA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AMTD IDEA Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AMTD IDEA Risk Indicators
The analysis of AMTD IDEA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AMTD IDEA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amtd stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.92 | |||
| Variance | 24.25 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AMTD IDEA
The number of cover stories for AMTD IDEA depends on current market conditions and AMTD IDEA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AMTD IDEA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AMTD IDEA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AMTD IDEA Short Properties
AMTD IDEA's future price predictability will typically decrease when AMTD IDEA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AMTD IDEA Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AMTD IDEA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMTD IDEA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 87.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMTD IDEA to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could AMTD diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMTD IDEA. If investors know AMTD will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every AMTD IDEA data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Earnings Share 0.72 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.168 | Return On Assets |
The market value of AMTD IDEA Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMTD that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AMTD IDEA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AMTD IDEA's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because AMTD IDEA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AMTD IDEA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that AMTD IDEA's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AMTD IDEA represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, AMTD IDEA's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.