American Outdoor Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AOUT Stock | USD 8.60 0.14 1.65% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of American Outdoor's share price is at 53. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling American Outdoor, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using American Outdoor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Outdoor Brands from the perspective of American Outdoor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Outdoor Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 8.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.95. American Outdoor after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Outdoor to cross-verify your projections. American Outdoor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Outdoor Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Outdoor Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 8.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Outdoor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Outdoor Stock Forecast Pattern
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American Outdoor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Outdoor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Outdoor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.75 and 11.39, respectively. We have considered American Outdoor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Outdoor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Outdoor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0223 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1856 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.9507 |
Predictive Modules for American Outdoor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Outdoor Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Outdoor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Outdoor After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Outdoor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Outdoor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Outdoor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Outdoor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Outdoor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Outdoor's historical news coverage. American Outdoor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 2.82, respectively. We have considered American Outdoor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Outdoor is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Outdoor Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Outdoor Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Outdoor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Outdoor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Outdoor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 2.82 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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American Outdoor Hype Timeline
American Outdoor Brands is presently traded for 8.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. American is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Outdoor is about 5529.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.58. About 82.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.62. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Outdoor Brands recorded a loss per share of 0.44. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Outdoor to cross-verify your projections.American Outdoor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Outdoor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Outdoor's future price movements. Getting to know how American Outdoor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Outdoor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TRON | Tron Inc | (0.24) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.18 | (8.71) | 33.67 | |
| SPWH | Sportsmans | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.96 | (6.07) | 37.14 | |
| GENK | GEN Restaurant Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.75 | (5.51) | 13.78 | |
| GRWG | GrowGeneration Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.95 | (0.01) | 3.33 | (5.82) | 52.12 | |
| AGH | Aureus Greenway Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 11.47 | (11.38) | 39.65 | |
| THCH | TH International Limited | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.81 | (6.15) | 16.63 | |
| QVCGA | QVC Group | (0.24) | 20 per month | 9.29 | 0.03 | 14.97 | (9.85) | 46.70 | |
| PRPL | Purple Innovation | (0.24) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.25 | (5.48) | 27.01 | |
| FLL | Full House Resorts | 0.18 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.86 | (4.87) | 16.22 | |
| LAZR | Luminar Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 17.05 | (47.06) | 236.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Outdoor
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Outdoor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Outdoor's price trends.American Outdoor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Outdoor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Outdoor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Outdoor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Outdoor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Outdoor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Outdoor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Outdoor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Outdoor Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Outdoor Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Outdoor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Outdoor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Variance | 7.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Outdoor
The number of cover stories for American Outdoor depends on current market conditions and American Outdoor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Outdoor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Outdoor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Outdoor Short Properties
American Outdoor's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Outdoor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Outdoor Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.4 M |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Outdoor's price analysis, check to measure American Outdoor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Outdoor is operating at the current time. Most of American Outdoor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Outdoor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Outdoor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Outdoor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.