Air Products Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| APD Stock | USD 328.85 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Air Products and on the next trading day is expected to be 347.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 294.77. Air Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Air Products stock prices and determine the direction of Air Products and's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Air Products' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Air |
Air Products Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Air Products' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-09-30 | Previous Quarter 2.4 B | Current Value 3 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.3 B |
Air Products Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Air Products and on the next trading day is expected to be 347.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.75, mean absolute percentage error of 40.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 294.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Air Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Air Products' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Air Products Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Air Products | Air Products Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Air Products Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Air Products' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Air Products' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 346.29 and 349.38, respectively. We have considered Air Products' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Air Products stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Air Products stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.6476 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.7543 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 294.7691 |
Predictive Modules for Air Products
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Air Products
For every potential investor in Air, whether a beginner or expert, Air Products' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Air Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Air. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Air Products' price trends.Air Products Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Air Products stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Air Products could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Air Products by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Air Products Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Air Products' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Air Products' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Air Products Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Air Products stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Air Products shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Air Products stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Air Products and entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 25562.03 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 328.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 328.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.8 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 59.4 |
Air Products Risk Indicators
The analysis of Air Products' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Air Products' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting air stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9205 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5547 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Variance | 2.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8963 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3077 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Air Products is a strong investment it is important to analyze Air Products' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Air Products' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Air Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Air Products to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Industrial Gases space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Air Products. If investors know Air will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Air Products listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.81 | Dividend Share 7.06 | Earnings Share 17.25 | Revenue Per Share 54.385 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of Air Products is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Air that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Air Products' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Air Products' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Air Products' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Air Products' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Air Products' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Air Products is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Air Products' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.