Appfolio Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| APPF Stock | USD 251.06 8.67 3.58% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Appfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 251.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 198.83. Appfolio Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Appfolio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Appfolio |
Appfolio Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Appfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 251.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.26, mean absolute percentage error of 28.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 198.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Appfolio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Appfolio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Appfolio Stock Forecast Pattern
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Appfolio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Appfolio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Appfolio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 248.59 and 253.53, respectively. We have considered Appfolio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Appfolio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Appfolio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4697 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3126 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.2595 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 198.83 |
Predictive Modules for Appfolio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Appfolio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Appfolio
For every potential investor in Appfolio, whether a beginner or expert, Appfolio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Appfolio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Appfolio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Appfolio's price trends.View Appfolio Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Appfolio Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Appfolio's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Appfolio's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Appfolio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Appfolio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Appfolio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Appfolio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Appfolio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Appfolio Risk Indicators
The analysis of Appfolio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Appfolio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting appfolio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Variance | 5.77 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Appfolio is a strong investment it is important to analyze Appfolio's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Appfolio's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Appfolio Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Appfolio to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Appfolio Stock please use our How to Invest in Appfolio guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Appfolio. If investors know Appfolio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Appfolio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.25 | Earnings Share 3.61 | Revenue Per Share 21.111 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.244 | Return On Assets 0.1953 |
The market value of Appfolio is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Appfolio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Appfolio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Appfolio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Appfolio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Appfolio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Appfolio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Appfolio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Appfolio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.