Alexandria Real Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ARE Stock | USD 55.14 0.17 0.31% |
Alexandria Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alexandria Real stock prices and determine the direction of Alexandria Real Estate's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Alexandria Real's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Alexandria Real's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.484 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.19 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.04) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.42) | Wall Street Target Price 60.1429 |
Using Alexandria Real hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alexandria Real Estate from the perspective of Alexandria Real response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alexandria Real using Alexandria Real's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alexandria using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alexandria Real's stock price.
Alexandria Real Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alexandria Real's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alexandria. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alexandria Real stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 68.5715 | Short Percent 0.0733 | Short Ratio 3.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.9 M | 50 Day MA 51.701 |
Alexandria Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alexandria Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 55.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.58.Alexandria Real Estate Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alexandria Real's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alexandria. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alexandria can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alexandria Real Estate. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alexandria Real's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alexandria Real.
Alexandria Real Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
Alexandria Real's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alexandria Real Estate stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alexandria Real's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alexandria Real stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alexandria Real's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alexandria Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 55.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.58. Alexandria Real after-hype prediction price | USD 55.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alexandria | Build AI portfolio with Alexandria Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alexandria contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alexandria Real Estate will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Alexandria Real trading at USD 55.14, that is roughly USD 0.0214 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alexandria Real's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alexandria Real Estate options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Alexandria Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alexandria Real's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alexandria Real's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alexandria Real stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alexandria Real's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alexandria Real's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alexandria Real is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alexandria. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alexandria Real Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alexandria price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alexandria using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alexandria charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alexandria Real Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alexandria Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 55.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94, mean absolute percentage error of 1.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alexandria Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alexandria Real's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alexandria Real Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alexandria Real | Alexandria Real Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Alexandria Real Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alexandria Real's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alexandria Real's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.68 and 57.60, respectively. We have considered Alexandria Real's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alexandria Real stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alexandria Real stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7879 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0057 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.943 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.58 |
Predictive Modules for Alexandria Real
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alexandria Real Estate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alexandria Real After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alexandria Real at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alexandria Real or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alexandria Real, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alexandria Real Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alexandria Real's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alexandria Real's historical news coverage. Alexandria Real's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.68 and 57.60, respectively. We have considered Alexandria Real's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alexandria Real is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alexandria Real Estate is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alexandria Real Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alexandria Real is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alexandria Real backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alexandria Real, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.46 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
55.14 | 55.14 | 0.00 |
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Alexandria Real Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February Alexandria Real Estate is traded for 55.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Alexandria is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alexandria Real is about 176.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.20. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.6. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alexandria Real Estate recorded a loss per share of 8.67. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The firm had 100:1 split on the 30th of July 2002. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alexandria Real to cross-verify your projections.Alexandria Real Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alexandria Real's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alexandria Real's future price movements. Getting to know how Alexandria Real's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alexandria Real may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BXP | Boston Properties | (1.14) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.98 | (2.17) | 6.64 | |
| KRC | Kilroy Realty Corp | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.96 | (2.56) | 6.02 | |
| SLG | SL Green Realty | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.57 | (3.47) | 10.73 | |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | (0.04) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.88 | (2.94) | 9.73 | |
| HIW | Highwoods Properties | 7.10 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.92 | (2.21) | 7.13 | |
| AVB | AvalonBay Communities | 5.56 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.02 | (2.28) | 5.11 | |
| MAA | Mid America Apartment Communities | 1.48 | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.01 | 2.09 | (1.91) | 5.24 | |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust | (0.50) | 6 per month | 1.19 | (0.02) | 2.01 | (2.16) | 5.23 | |
| REG | Regency Centers | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.72 | 0.11 | 2.10 | (1.32) | 3.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alexandria Real
For every potential investor in Alexandria, whether a beginner or expert, Alexandria Real's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alexandria Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alexandria. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alexandria Real's price trends.Alexandria Real Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alexandria Real stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alexandria Real could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alexandria Real by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alexandria Real Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alexandria Real stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alexandria Real shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alexandria Real stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alexandria Real Estate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 56625.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.09) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 54.66 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 54.82 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.4 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.17) |
Alexandria Real Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alexandria Real's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alexandria Real's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alexandria stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Variance | 6.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alexandria Real
The number of cover stories for Alexandria Real depends on current market conditions and Alexandria Real's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alexandria Real is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alexandria Real's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alexandria Real Short Properties
Alexandria Real's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alexandria Real's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alexandria Real Estate often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alexandria Real's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alexandria Real's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 170.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 549.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alexandria Real to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Will Diversified REITs sector continue expanding? Could Alexandria diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alexandria Real. If investors know Alexandria will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Alexandria Real data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.484 | Dividend Share 4.68 | Earnings Share (8.67) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
Understanding Alexandria Real Estate requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Alexandria's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Alexandria Real's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Alexandria Real's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Alexandria Real's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Alexandria Real represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Alexandria Real's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.