Alliance Resource Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ARLP Stock | USD 25.10 0.01 0.04% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Alliance Resource Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 24.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.59. Alliance Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Alliance Resource's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alliance Resource's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alliance Resource fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Alliance Resource's stock price is slightly above 65. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alliance, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.11 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.705 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.355 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6767 | Wall Street Target Price 31 |
Using Alliance Resource hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alliance Resource Partners from the perspective of Alliance Resource response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alliance Resource using Alliance Resource's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alliance using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alliance Resource's stock price.
Alliance Resource Short Interest
An investor who is long Alliance Resource may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Alliance Resource and may potentially protect profits, hedge Alliance Resource with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 25.0866 | Short Percent 0.0128 | Short Ratio 3.55 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.3 M | 50 Day MA 23.9814 |
Alliance Resource Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alliance Resource's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alliance. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alliance can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alliance Resource Partners. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Alliance Resource Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
Alliance Resource's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alliance Resource Partners stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alliance Resource's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alliance Resource stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alliance Resource's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Alliance Resource Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 24.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.59. Alliance Resource after-hype prediction price | USD 25.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alliance Resource to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alliance contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alliance Resource Partners will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Alliance Resource trading at USD 25.1, that is roughly USD 0.008942 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alliance Resource's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alliance Resource Partners options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Alliance Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alliance Resource's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alliance Resource's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alliance Resource stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alliance Resource's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alliance Resource's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alliance Resource is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alliance. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alliance Resource Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alliance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alliance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alliance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alliance Resource Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Alliance Resource Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 24.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alliance Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alliance Resource's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alliance Resource Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alliance Resource | Alliance Resource Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alliance Resource Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alliance Resource's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alliance Resource's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.01 and 25.15, respectively. We have considered Alliance Resource's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alliance Resource stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alliance Resource stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7338 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4451 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0186 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.5946 |
Predictive Modules for Alliance Resource
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alliance Resource. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alliance Resource After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alliance Resource at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alliance Resource or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alliance Resource, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alliance Resource Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alliance Resource's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alliance Resource's historical news coverage. Alliance Resource's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.92 and 26.28, respectively. We have considered Alliance Resource's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alliance Resource is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alliance Resource is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alliance Resource Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alliance Resource is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alliance Resource backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alliance Resource, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.07 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.10 | 25.10 | 0.00 |
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Alliance Resource Hype Timeline
Alliance Resource is presently traded for 25.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Alliance is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 175.41%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alliance Resource is about 1371.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.11. About 29.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.74. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alliance Resource last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 17th of June 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alliance Resource to cross-verify your projections.Alliance Resource Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alliance Resource's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alliance Resource's future price movements. Getting to know how Alliance Resource's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alliance Resource may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WHITF | Whitehaven Coal Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.88 | 0.16 | 5.41 | (3.02) | 13.35 | |
| BTU | Peabody Energy Corp | 0.17 | 8 per month | 2.66 | 0.08 | 5.97 | (4.16) | 15.25 | |
| NHPEF | New Hope | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.49 | 0.03 | 6.43 | (5.03) | 19.63 | |
| FSHYF | Shougang Fushan Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NRP | Natural Resource Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.51 | 0.12 | 1.91 | (1.44) | 4.26 | |
| EXXAF | Exxaro Resources Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PBATF | PT Bukit Asam | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PADEF | PT Adaro Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MOGLF | Mongolian Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.51 | (0.01) | 7.95 | (9.03) | 20.59 | |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal | 0.61 | 10 per month | 1.77 | 0.16 | 4.77 | (3.66) | 27.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alliance Resource
For every potential investor in Alliance, whether a beginner or expert, Alliance Resource's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alliance Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alliance. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alliance Resource's price trends.Alliance Resource Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alliance Resource stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alliance Resource could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alliance Resource by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alliance Resource Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alliance Resource stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alliance Resource shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alliance Resource stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alliance Resource Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4884.71 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.03) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.12 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.64 |
Alliance Resource Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alliance Resource's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alliance Resource's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alliance stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9418 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Variance | 1.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alliance Resource
The number of cover stories for Alliance Resource depends on current market conditions and Alliance Resource's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alliance Resource is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alliance Resource's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alliance Resource Short Properties
Alliance Resource's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alliance Resource's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alliance Resource Partners often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alliance Resource's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alliance Resource's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 137 M |
Additional Tools for Alliance Stock Analysis
When running Alliance Resource's price analysis, check to measure Alliance Resource's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alliance Resource is operating at the current time. Most of Alliance Resource's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alliance Resource's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alliance Resource's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alliance Resource to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.