Aramark Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARMK Stock  USD 39.33  0.12  0.30%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aramark Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 39.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.06. Aramark Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Aramark Holdings' share price is at 54. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aramark Holdings, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Aramark Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aramark Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Aramark Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aramark Holdings from the perspective of Aramark Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aramark Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 39.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.06.

Aramark Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 39.33  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aramark Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Aramark Stock please use our How to buy in Aramark Stock guide.

Aramark Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aramark price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aramark using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aramark charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Aramark Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aramark Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aramark Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aramark Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 39.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aramark Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aramark Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aramark Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aramark HoldingsAramark Holdings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aramark Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aramark Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aramark Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.27 and 41.00, respectively. We have considered Aramark Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
39.33
39.64
Expected Value
41.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aramark Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aramark Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.71
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3944
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0105
SAESum of the absolute errors24.0614
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aramark Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aramark Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aramark Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aramark Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.9639.3340.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
37.2738.6440.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
36.6938.2439.79
Details

Aramark Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Aramark Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aramark Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aramark Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Aramark Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Aramark Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aramark Holdings' historical news coverage. Aramark Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.96 and 40.70, respectively. We have considered Aramark Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
39.33
39.33
After-hype Price
40.70
Upside
Aramark Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aramark Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Aramark Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aramark Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aramark Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aramark Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.37
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
39.33
39.33
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Aramark Holdings Hype Timeline

Aramark Holdings is presently traded for 39.33. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aramark is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aramark Holdings is about 6227.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.33. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Aramark Holdings was presently reported as 11.97. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.98. Aramark Holdings last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. The entity had 1385:1000 split on the 2nd of October 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aramark Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Aramark Stock please use our How to buy in Aramark Stock guide.

Aramark Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Aramark Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aramark Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Aramark Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aramark Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DCIDonaldson 0.00 0 per month 0.73  0.16  2.27 (1.74) 9.30 
CNMCore Main 0.00 0 per month 1.78  0.02  3.47 (2.83) 11.37 
POOLPool Corporation 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 3.03 (2.65) 6.97 
AITApplied Industrial Technologies(0.11)4 per month 1.04  0.03  2.64 (1.68) 4.58 
UHALU Haul Holding 0.00 0 per month 1.48  0.0005  2.78 (2.56) 9.39 
GNRCGenerac Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.07) 4.15 (5.41) 10.93 
SWKStanley Black Decker 0.00 0 per month 1.53  0.10  4.60 (2.67) 10.50 
DRSLeonardo DRS Common(0.11)4 per month 1.84 (0.02) 3.36 (2.72) 8.16 
FLSFlowserve 0.00 0 per month 0.96  0.14  2.55 (2.33) 34.18 
BAHBooz Allen Hamilton 0.00 0 per month 2.06  0  4.39 (3.19) 13.30 

Other Forecasting Options for Aramark Holdings

For every potential investor in Aramark, whether a beginner or expert, Aramark Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aramark Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aramark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aramark Holdings' price trends.

Aramark Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aramark Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aramark Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aramark Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aramark Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aramark Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aramark Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aramark Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aramark Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aramark Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aramark Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aramark Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aramark stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Aramark Holdings

The number of cover stories for Aramark Holdings depends on current market conditions and Aramark Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aramark Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aramark Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Aramark Holdings Short Properties

Aramark Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aramark Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aramark Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aramark Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aramark Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding267.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments639.1 M
When determining whether Aramark Holdings is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Aramark Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Aramark Holdings Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Aramark Holdings Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aramark Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Aramark Stock please use our How to buy in Aramark Stock guide.
You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aramark Holdings. If investors know Aramark will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aramark Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aramark Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aramark that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aramark Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aramark Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aramark Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aramark Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aramark Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aramark Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aramark Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.