Astronics Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ATRO Stock | USD 76.34 0.38 0.50% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astronics on the next trading day is expected to be 77.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.49. Astronics Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Astronics' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Astronics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Astronics from the perspective of Astronics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astronics on the next trading day is expected to be 77.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.49. Astronics after-hype prediction price | USD 76.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Astronics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Astronics price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Astronics using various technical indicators. When you analyze Astronics charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Astronics Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astronics on the next trading day is expected to be 77.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31, mean absolute percentage error of 3.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astronics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Astronics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Astronics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Astronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Astronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 74.27 and 80.36, respectively. We have considered Astronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.337 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3134 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0232 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 77.4913 |
Predictive Modules for Astronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Astronics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Astronics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Astronics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Astronics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Astronics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Astronics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Astronics' historical news coverage. Astronics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 73.27 and 79.41, respectively. We have considered Astronics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Astronics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Astronics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Astronics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Astronics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Astronics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Astronics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.71 | 3.04 | 0.59 | 0.04 | 21 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 21 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
76.34 | 76.34 | 0.00 |
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Astronics Hype Timeline
Astronics is presently traded for 76.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.59, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Astronics is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.71%. %. The volatility of related hype on Astronics is about 5152.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 76.30. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.46. Astronics recorded a loss per share of 0.09. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of January 1994. The firm had 1182:1000 split on the 11th of October 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 21 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astronics to cross-verify your projections.Astronics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Astronics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Astronics' future price movements. Getting to know how Astronics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Astronics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CDRE | Cadre Holdings | (0.86) | 7 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 4.08 | (2.99) | 10.53 | |
| VOYG | Voyager Technologies | 1.33 | 8 per month | 4.62 | 0.03 | 7.91 | (7.09) | 19.57 | |
| VVX | V2X Inc | (1.42) | 9 per month | 1.56 | 0.1 | 3.81 | (2.23) | 9.98 | |
| DCO | Ducommun Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.44 | 0.13 | 3.51 | (2.29) | 12.32 | |
| AMPX | Amprius Technologies | 1.46 | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.37 | (7.88) | 29.24 | |
| KMT | Kennametal | (0.83) | 8 per month | 0.82 | 0.23 | 4.67 | (2.41) | 17.95 | |
| PBI | Pitney Bowes | 0.13 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.65 | (2.96) | 13.11 | |
| MVST | Microvast Holdings | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 6.02 | (8.87) | 18.37 | |
| EVEX | Eve Holding | (0.69) | 10 per month | 3.08 | (0.01) | 5.46 | (5.43) | 19.07 | |
| NSP | Insperity | 0.37 | 17 per month | 3.86 | (0) | 4.91 | (3.13) | 20.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Astronics
For every potential investor in Astronics, whether a beginner or expert, Astronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Astronics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Astronics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Astronics' price trends.Astronics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Astronics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Astronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Astronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Astronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Astronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Astronics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Astronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting astronics stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.07 | |||
| Variance | 9.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Astronics
The number of cover stories for Astronics depends on current market conditions and Astronics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Astronics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Astronics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Astronics Short Properties
Astronics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Astronics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Astronics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Astronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astronics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Astronics Stock, please use our How to Invest in Astronics guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astronics. If investors know Astronics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Astronics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astronics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Astronics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.