Astronics Stock Forward View

ATRO Stock  USD 76.80  0.21  0.27%   
Astronics Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Astronics' share price is above 70 as of today. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Astronics, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 72

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Astronics' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Astronics, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Astronics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Astronics from the perspective of Astronics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Astronics on the next trading day is expected to be 75.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.46.

Astronics after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 76.8  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astronics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Astronics Stock, please use our How to Invest in Astronics guide.

Astronics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Astronics price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Astronics using various technical indicators. When you analyze Astronics charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Astronics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Astronics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Astronics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Astronics on the next trading day is expected to be 75.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 2.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astronics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Astronics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Astronics  Astronics Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Astronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Astronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Astronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 72.04 and 78.16, respectively. We have considered Astronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
76.80
75.10
Expected Value
78.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.0262
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2207
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0219
SAESum of the absolute errors74.4602
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Astronics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Astronics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Astronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
73.7476.8079.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
69.1282.3185.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
49.0566.9184.76
Details

Astronics After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Astronics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Astronics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Astronics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Astronics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Astronics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Astronics' historical news coverage. Astronics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 73.74 and 79.86, respectively. We have considered Astronics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
76.80
76.80
After-hype Price
79.86
Upside
Astronics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Astronics is based on 3 months time horizon.

Astronics Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Astronics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Astronics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Astronics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.78 
3.06
 0.00  
  0.04 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
76.80
76.80
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Astronics Hype Timeline

Astronics is presently traded for 76.80. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.04. Astronics is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.78%. %. The volatility of related hype on Astronics is about 5884.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 76.76. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.46. Astronics recorded a loss per share of 0.09. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of January 1994. The firm had 1182:1000 split on the 11th of October 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astronics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Astronics Stock, please use our How to Invest in Astronics guide.

Astronics Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Astronics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Astronics' future price movements. Getting to know how Astronics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Astronics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Astronics

For every potential investor in Astronics, whether a beginner or expert, Astronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Astronics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Astronics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Astronics' price trends.

Astronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Astronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Astronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Astronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Astronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Astronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Astronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Astronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting astronics stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Astronics

The number of cover stories for Astronics depends on current market conditions and Astronics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Astronics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Astronics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Astronics Short Properties

Astronics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Astronics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Astronics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Astronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding35.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments9.3 M
When determining whether Astronics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Astronics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Astronics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Astronics Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astronics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Astronics Stock, please use our How to Invest in Astronics guide.
You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Astronics diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astronics. If investors know Astronics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Astronics data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Astronics requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Astronics's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Astronics' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Astronics' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Astronics' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Astronics represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Astronics' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.