Grupo Aval Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| AVAL Stock | USD 4.69 0.04 0.85% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Grupo Aval on the next trading day is expected to be 4.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.73. Grupo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Grupo Aval's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Grupo Aval's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Grupo Aval fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Grupo Aval's stock price is about 68. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Grupo, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.253 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0964 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.383 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4765 | Wall Street Target Price 3.2 |
Using Grupo Aval hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grupo Aval from the perspective of Grupo Aval response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Grupo Aval on the next trading day is expected to be 4.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.73. Grupo Aval after-hype prediction price | USD 4.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo Aval to cross-verify your projections. Grupo Aval Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Grupo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grupo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grupo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grupo Aval Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Grupo Aval on the next trading day is expected to be 4.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupo Aval's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grupo Aval Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Grupo Aval | Grupo Aval Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Grupo Aval Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grupo Aval's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupo Aval's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.97 and 6.41, respectively. We have considered Grupo Aval's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupo Aval stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupo Aval stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.3022 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0145 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0622 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0147 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.73 |
Predictive Modules for Grupo Aval
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Aval. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Grupo Aval After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Grupo Aval at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grupo Aval or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Grupo Aval, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Grupo Aval Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Grupo Aval's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grupo Aval's historical news coverage. Grupo Aval's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.97 and 6.41, respectively. We have considered Grupo Aval's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Grupo Aval is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grupo Aval is based on 3 months time horizon.
Grupo Aval Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Grupo Aval is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grupo Aval backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grupo Aval, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.72 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.69 | 4.69 | 0.00 |
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Grupo Aval Hype Timeline
Grupo Aval is presently traded for 4.69. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Grupo is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Grupo Aval is about 1977.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.71. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.13. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Grupo Aval last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo Aval to cross-verify your projections.Grupo Aval Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Grupo Aval's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grupo Aval's future price movements. Getting to know how Grupo Aval's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grupo Aval may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UBSI | United Bankshares | (0.32) | 9 per month | 0.83 | 0.14 | 3.05 | (1.84) | 8.03 | |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | (0.33) | 4 per month | 0.88 | 0.11 | 2.71 | (1.78) | 5.90 | |
| HWC | Hancock Whitney Corp | (0.42) | 10 per month | 0.64 | 0.19 | 2.85 | (1.12) | 6.52 | |
| OZK | Bank Ozk | 1.07 | 11 per month | 1.09 | (0.02) | 2.43 | (1.53) | 6.11 | |
| IFS | Intercorp Financial Services | (0.16) | 10 per month | 1.39 | 0.08 | 3.68 | (2.88) | 5.62 | |
| HOMB | Home BancShares | (0.33) | 4 per month | 0.93 | 0.03 | 2.16 | (1.52) | 5.65 | |
| GBCI | Glacier Bancorp | 0.61 | 16 per month | 1.42 | 0.06 | 3.25 | (1.80) | 8.19 | |
| AX | Axos Financial | (0.33) | 15 per month | 1.13 | 0.17 | 3.18 | (2.33) | 7.14 | |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares | 0.95 | 7 per month | 1.11 | 0.09 | 3.79 | (1.90) | 7.22 | |
| FNB | FNB Corp | 0.13 | 10 per month | 0.72 | 0.15 | 2.90 | (1.46) | 5.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Grupo Aval
For every potential investor in Grupo, whether a beginner or expert, Grupo Aval's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupo Aval's price trends.Grupo Aval Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grupo Aval stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grupo Aval could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grupo Aval by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grupo Aval Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupo Aval stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupo Aval shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupo Aval stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupo Aval entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Grupo Aval Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grupo Aval's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupo Aval's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Variance | 3.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Grupo Aval
The number of cover stories for Grupo Aval depends on current market conditions and Grupo Aval's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grupo Aval is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grupo Aval's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Grupo Aval Short Properties
Grupo Aval's future price predictability will typically decrease when Grupo Aval's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Grupo Aval often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Grupo Aval's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Aval's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44 T |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo Aval to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Grupo Stock please use our How to buy in Grupo Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grupo Aval. If investors know Grupo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grupo Aval listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.253 | Earnings Share 0.38 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.121 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Grupo Aval is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grupo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grupo Aval's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grupo Aval's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grupo Aval's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grupo Aval's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grupo Aval's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grupo Aval is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grupo Aval's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.