American Water Stock Forward View
| AWK Stock | USD 128.37 4.68 3.78% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of American Water's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using American Water hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Water Works from the perspective of American Water response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Water Works on the next trading day is expected to be 124.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.80. American Water after-hype prediction price | USD 128.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Water to cross-verify your projections. American Water Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Water Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Water Works on the next trading day is expected to be 124.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.47, mean absolute percentage error of 3.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Water's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Water Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Water | American Water Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
American Water Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Water's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Water's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 122.71 and 125.38, respectively. We have considered American Water's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Water stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Water stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3101 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4721 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.7953 |
Predictive Modules for American Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Water Works. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Water After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Water at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Water or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Water, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Water Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Water's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Water's historical news coverage. American Water's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 126.97 and 129.63, respectively. We have considered American Water's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Water is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Water Works is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Water Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Water is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Water backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Water, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
128.37 | 128.30 | 0.05 |
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American Water Hype Timeline
On the 12th of February 2026 American Water Works is traded for 128.37. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. American is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 128.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on American Water is about 2660.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 128.37. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of American Water was presently reported as 55.9. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.44. American Water Works recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.63. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of February 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 26th of July 1996. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Water to cross-verify your projections.American Water Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Water's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Water's future price movements. Getting to know how American Water's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Water may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FTS | Fortis Inc | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.56 | 0.08 | 1.48 | (1.17) | 4.38 | |
| EBR-B | Centrais Eltricas Brasileiras | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.03 | 0.08 | 7.76 | (9.71) | 31.49 | |
| SO | Southern Company | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.00 | (0.03) | 1.54 | (1.81) | 4.07 | |
| EBR | Centrais Electricas Brasileiras | (0.02) | 5 per month | 4.49 | 0.09 | 2.80 | (3.23) | 32.39 | |
| CNP | CenterPoint Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | 0.01 | 1.65 | (1.67) | 3.57 | |
| FE | FirstEnergy | (0.20) | 11 per month | 0.80 | 0.04 | 1.65 | (1.31) | 4.07 | |
| AEE | Ameren Corp | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.94 | 0 | 1.46 | (1.45) | 4.20 | |
| DTE | DTE Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | (0.02) | 1.36 | (1.48) | 3.27 | |
| CMS | CMS Energy | (0.40) | 9 per month | 1.03 | (0.05) | 1.31 | (1.37) | 4.16 | |
| PPL | PPL Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | (0.06) | 1.58 | (1.61) | 4.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Water
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Water's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Water's price trends.American Water Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Water stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Water could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Water by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Water Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Water stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Water shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Water stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Water Works entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 169694.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7324 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 126.7 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 127.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 4.02 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 4.68 |
American Water Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Water's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Water's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Variance | 1.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Water
The number of cover stories for American Water depends on current market conditions and American Water's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Water is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Water's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Water Short Properties
American Water's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Water's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Water Works often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Water's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Water's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 195 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 196 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Water to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Water Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Water. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive American Water assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate American Water Works using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating American Water's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause American Water's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that American Water's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether American Water represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, American Water's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.