American Water Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AWK Stock | USD 124.30 1.59 1.26% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although American Water's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of American Water's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Water fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of American Water's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.081 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.3037 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.7258 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.1026 | Wall Street Target Price 139.8 |
Using American Water hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Water Works from the perspective of American Water response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Water using American Water's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Water's stock price.
American Water Short Interest
An investor who is long American Water may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Water and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Water with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 137.8089 | Short Percent 0.0611 | Short Ratio 6.15 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.7 M | 50 Day MA 130.2488 |
American Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Water Works on the next trading day is expected to be 124.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.83.American Water Works Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Water's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Water Works. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Water's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Water.
American Water Implied Volatility | 0.48 |
American Water's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Water Works stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Water's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Water stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Water's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Water Works on the next trading day is expected to be 124.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.83. American Water after-hype prediction price | USD 124.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Water to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Water Works will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.03% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With American Water trading at USD 124.3, that is roughly USD 0.0373 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Water's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Water Works options at the current volatility level of 0.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Water's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Water's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Water stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Water's open interest, investors have to compare it to American Water's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Water is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American Water Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Water Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Water Works on the next trading day is expected to be 124.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.21, mean absolute percentage error of 2.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Water's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Water Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Water | American Water Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
American Water Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Water's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Water's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 123.14 and 125.58, respectively. We have considered American Water's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Water stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Water stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9899 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0863 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2103 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 73.8281 |
Predictive Modules for American Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Water Works. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Water After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Water at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Water or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Water, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Water Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Water's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Water's historical news coverage. American Water's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 123.08 and 125.52, respectively. We have considered American Water's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Water is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Water Works is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Water Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Water is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Water backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Water, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.22 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
124.30 | 124.30 | 0.00 |
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American Water Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February American Water Works is traded for 124.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. American is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 65.95%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Water is about 122000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 124.30. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of American Water was presently reported as 55.9. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.46. American Water Works recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.62. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of February 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 26th of July 1996. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Water to cross-verify your projections.American Water Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Water's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Water's future price movements. Getting to know how American Water's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Water may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FTS | Fortis Inc | (0.36) | 9 per month | 0.51 | 0.08 | 1.38 | (1.16) | 2.88 | |
| EBR-B | Centrais Eltricas Brasileiras | (0.1) | 4 per month | 4.47 | 0.09 | 5.25 | (3.48) | 31.49 | |
| SO | Southern Company | (0.23) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.10 | (1.81) | 4.07 | |
| EBR | Centrais Electricas Brasileiras | (0.02) | 5 per month | 4.49 | 0.09 | 2.80 | (3.23) | 32.39 | |
| CNP | CenterPoint Energy | (0.73) | 7 per month | 0.97 | 0 | 1.37 | (1.67) | 3.57 | |
| FE | FirstEnergy | (0.21) | 13 per month | 0.91 | (0.05) | 1.35 | (1.30) | 4.05 | |
| AEE | Ameren Corp | 0.85 | 10 per month | 0.96 | (0.03) | 1.23 | (1.45) | 5.74 | |
| DTE | DTE Energy | 0.08 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.45 | (1.74) | 4.73 | |
| CMS | CMS Energy | (0.13) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.31 | (1.44) | 5.00 | |
| PPL | PPL Corporation | 0.86 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.57 | (1.61) | 4.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Water
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Water's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Water's price trends.American Water Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Water stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Water could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Water by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Water Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Water stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Water shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Water stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Water Works entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 57705.21 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.46) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 125.71 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 125.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.21) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.59) |
American Water Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Water's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Water's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Variance | 1.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Water
The number of cover stories for American Water depends on current market conditions and American Water's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Water is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Water's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Water Short Properties
American Water's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Water's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Water Works often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Water's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Water's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 195 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 196 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Water to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Water Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Water. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive American Water assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.081 | Dividend Share 3.185 | Earnings Share 5.62 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.097 |
Investors evaluate American Water Works using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating American Water's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause American Water's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that American Water's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether American Water represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, American Water's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.