BancFirst Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| BANF Stock | USD 108.59 0.12 0.11% |
BancFirst Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of BancFirst's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of BancFirst's share price is approaching 47 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling BancFirst, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.041 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.8 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.88 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.0733 | Wall Street Target Price 122.6667 |
Using BancFirst hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BancFirst from the perspective of BancFirst response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards BancFirst using BancFirst's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards BancFirst using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of BancFirst's stock price.
BancFirst Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in BancFirst's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards BancFirst. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of BancFirst stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 120.0956 | Short Percent 0.0382 | Short Ratio 6.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 855.6 K | 50 Day MA 110.6312 |
BancFirst Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of BancFirst on the next trading day is expected to be 110.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.39.BancFirst Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to BancFirst's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BancFirst. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BancFirst can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BancFirst. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of BancFirst's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about BancFirst.
BancFirst Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
BancFirst's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of BancFirst stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if BancFirst's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that BancFirst stock will not fluctuate a lot when BancFirst's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of BancFirst on the next trading day is expected to be 110.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.39. BancFirst after-hype prediction price | USD 108.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current BancFirst contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that BancFirst will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With BancFirst trading at USD 108.59, that is roughly USD 0.0292 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating BancFirst's daily price movement you should consider acquiring BancFirst options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 BancFirst Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast BancFirst's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in BancFirst's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for BancFirst stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current BancFirst's open interest, investors have to compare it to BancFirst's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of BancFirst is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in BancFirst. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
BancFirst Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BancFirst price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BancFirst using various technical indicators. When you analyze BancFirst charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
BancFirst Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of BancFirst on the next trading day is expected to be 110.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86, mean absolute percentage error of 5.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BancFirst Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BancFirst's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BancFirst Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest BancFirst | BancFirst Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
BancFirst Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting BancFirst's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BancFirst's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 109.15 and 112.68, respectively. We have considered BancFirst's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BancFirst stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BancFirst stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7364 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8589 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 113.3945 |
Predictive Modules for BancFirst
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BancFirst. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.BancFirst After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BancFirst at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BancFirst or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BancFirst, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BancFirst Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BancFirst's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BancFirst's historical news coverage. BancFirst's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 106.77 and 110.33, respectively. We have considered BancFirst's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BancFirst is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BancFirst is based on 3 months time horizon.
BancFirst Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BancFirst is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BancFirst backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BancFirst, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.76 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 33 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 33 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
108.59 | 108.55 | 0.07 |
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BancFirst Hype Timeline
BancFirst is currently traded for 108.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. BancFirst is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 108.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 82.63%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on BancFirst is about 768.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 108.59. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 200.14 M. Net Income was 216.35 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 684.96 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 33 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BancFirst to cross-verify your projections.BancFirst Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BancFirst's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BancFirst's future price movements. Getting to know how BancFirst's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BancFirst may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FULT | Fulton Financial | 0.44 | 8 per month | 1.28 | 0.09 | 3.01 | (1.95) | 6.64 | |
| UCB | United Community Banks | 0.61 | 7 per month | 1.11 | 0.07 | 2.80 | (1.36) | 5.94 | |
| BBAR | BBVA Banco Frances | 0.43 | 34 per month | 1.73 | 0.20 | 8.68 | (4.44) | 46.86 | |
| ASB | Associated Banc Corp | 0.59 | 13 per month | 1.25 | 0.01 | 3.31 | (1.59) | 6.04 | |
| SFBS | ServisFirst Bancshares | (0.53) | 7 per month | 1.85 | 0.03 | 3.57 | (3.26) | 15.45 | |
| TCBI | Texas Capital Bancshares | 1.61 | 9 per month | 1.40 | 0.12 | 3.04 | (2.35) | 6.72 | |
| SNV | Synovus Financial Corp | (0.80) | 2 per month | 1.99 | (0.01) | 2.93 | (2.49) | 9.63 | |
| FIBK | First Interstate BancSystem | 0.25 | 8 per month | 1.37 | 0.12 | 2.88 | (2.01) | 7.47 | |
| INDB | Independent Bank | (0.54) | 9 per month | 1.05 | 0.09 | 2.97 | (1.83) | 6.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for BancFirst
For every potential investor in BancFirst, whether a beginner or expert, BancFirst's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BancFirst Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BancFirst. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BancFirst's price trends.BancFirst Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BancFirst stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BancFirst could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BancFirst by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BancFirst Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BancFirst stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BancFirst shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BancFirst stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BancFirst entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
BancFirst Risk Indicators
The analysis of BancFirst's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BancFirst's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bancfirst stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for BancFirst
The number of cover stories for BancFirst depends on current market conditions and BancFirst's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BancFirst is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BancFirst's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BancFirst to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in BancFirst Stock please use our How to Invest in BancFirst guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BancFirst. If investors know BancFirst will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BancFirst listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.041 | Dividend Share 1.9 | Earnings Share 7.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.112 |
The market value of BancFirst is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BancFirst that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BancFirst's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BancFirst's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BancFirst's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BancFirst's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BancFirst's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BancFirst is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BancFirst's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.