Best Buy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BBY Stock  USD 69.18  2.25  3.36%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Best Buy Co on the next trading day is expected to be 67.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.85. Best Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Best Buy's share price is below 30 at this time suggesting that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Best Buy Co, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 20

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Best Buy's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Best Buy Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Best Buy's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.48)
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.3365
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.7494
Wall Street Target Price
83.5714
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.3127
Using Best Buy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Best Buy Co from the perspective of Best Buy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Best Buy using Best Buy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Best using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Best Buy's stock price.

Best Buy Short Interest

An investor who is long Best Buy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Best Buy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Best Buy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
72.1026
Short Percent
0.0979
Short Ratio
3.4
Shares Short Prior Month
12.6 M
50 Day MA
75.8562

Best Buy Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Best Buy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Best. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Best can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Best Buy Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Best Buy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Best Buy.

Best Buy Implied Volatility

    
  0.54  
Best Buy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Best Buy Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Best Buy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Best Buy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Best Buy's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Best Buy Co on the next trading day is expected to be 67.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.85.

Best Buy after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 69.18  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Best Buy to cross-verify your projections.
Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to 4.79 in 2026. Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 8.54 in 2026. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 383.7 M in 2026. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 1.6 B in 2026.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Best Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Best Buy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Best Buy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Best Buy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Best Buy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Best Buy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Best Buy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Best. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Best Buy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Best price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Best using various technical indicators. When you analyze Best charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Best Buy's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1986-01-31
Previous Quarter
1.7 B
Current Value
1.2 B
Quarterly Volatility
1.1 B
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Best Buy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Best Buy Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Best Buy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Best Buy Co on the next trading day is expected to be 67.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33, mean absolute percentage error of 3.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Best Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Best Buy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Best Buy Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Best BuyBest Buy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Best Buy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Best Buy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Best Buy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 65.01 and 69.50, respectively. We have considered Best Buy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
69.18
67.25
Expected Value
69.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Best Buy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Best Buy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.2772
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3253
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0176
SAESum of the absolute errors80.8454
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Best Buy Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Best Buy. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Best Buy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Best Buy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
66.9569.1871.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
62.2677.8180.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
66.3072.4678.62
Details
29 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
76.0583.5792.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Best Buy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Best Buy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Best Buy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Best Buy.

Other Forecasting Options for Best Buy

For every potential investor in Best, whether a beginner or expert, Best Buy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Best Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Best. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Best Buy's price trends.

Best Buy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Best Buy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Best Buy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Best Buy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Best Buy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Best Buy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Best Buy's current price.

Best Buy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Best Buy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Best Buy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Best Buy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Best Buy Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Best Buy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Best Buy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Best Buy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting best stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Best Stock Analysis

When running Best Buy's price analysis, check to measure Best Buy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Best Buy is operating at the current time. Most of Best Buy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Best Buy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Best Buy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Best Buy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.