BGC Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| BGC Stock | 9.60 0.11 1.13% |
BGC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BGC stock prices and determine the direction of BGC Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of BGC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength indicator of BGC's stock price is about 60 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling BGC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using BGC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BGC Group from the perspective of BGC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of BGC Group on the next trading day is expected to be 9.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.50. BGC after-hype prediction price | USD 9.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BGC to cross-verify your projections. BGC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BGC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BGC using various technical indicators. When you analyze BGC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
BGC Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of BGC Group on the next trading day is expected to be 9.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BGC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BGC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BGC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest BGC | BGC Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
BGC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting BGC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BGC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.26 and 11.39, respectively. We have considered BGC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BGC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BGC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7861 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1557 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.4981 |
Predictive Modules for BGC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BGC Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.BGC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BGC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BGC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BGC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BGC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BGC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BGC's historical news coverage. BGC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.64 and 11.78, respectively. We have considered BGC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BGC is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BGC Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
BGC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BGC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BGC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BGC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.07 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.60 | 9.71 | 1.15 |
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BGC Hype Timeline
On the 21st of February BGC Group is traded for 9.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.41. BGC is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.71 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.15%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on BGC is about 109.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.19. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.01 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 154.96 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.57 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BGC to cross-verify your projections.BGC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BGC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BGC's future price movements. Getting to know how BGC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BGC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PJT | PJT Partners | (9.47) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.08 | (3.37) | 12.71 | |
| LAZ | Lazard | 1.34 | 10 per month | 2.36 | 0.01 | 3.71 | (3.69) | 12.16 | |
| MC | Moelis Co | (3.83) | 8 per month | 2.23 | (0.02) | 3.34 | (4.25) | 11.68 | |
| VIRT | Virtu Financial | (1.36) | 8 per month | 1.83 | 0.07 | 2.81 | (3.14) | 13.20 | |
| SNEX | Stonex Group | 0.61 | 22 per month | 1.63 | 0.21 | 4.80 | (3.12) | 9.35 | |
| ASB | Associated Banc Corp | (0.88) | 9 per month | 1.30 | 0.08 | 3.31 | (2.18) | 8.15 | |
| RJF | Raymond James Financial | 0.03 | 7 per month | 2.05 | (0.04) | 2.28 | (2.20) | 11.78 | |
| HUT | Hut 8 Corp | (5.36) | 11 per month | 6.44 | 0.10 | 14.21 | (11.64) | 32.22 | |
| AB | AllianceBernstein Holding LP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.89 | (0.02) | 2.62 | (2.13) | 14.43 | |
| FSK | FS KKR Capital | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.05 | (2.32) | 7.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for BGC
For every potential investor in BGC, whether a beginner or expert, BGC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BGC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BGC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BGC's price trends.BGC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BGC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BGC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BGC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BGC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BGC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BGC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BGC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BGC Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
BGC Risk Indicators
The analysis of BGC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BGC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bgc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Variance | 4.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for BGC
The number of cover stories for BGC depends on current market conditions and BGC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BGC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BGC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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BGC Short Properties
BGC's future price predictability will typically decrease when BGC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BGC Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BGC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BGC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 480.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 873.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BGC to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Will Investment Banking & Brokerage sector continue expanding? Could BGC diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BGC. Projected growth potential of BGC fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every BGC data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate BGC Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating BGC's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause BGC's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between BGC's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding BGC should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, BGC's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.