Blackstone Mortgage Stock Forward View

BXMT Stock  USD 19.25  0.18  0.93%   
Blackstone Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The RSI of Blackstone Mortgage's share price is at 51 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Blackstone Mortgage, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 51

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Blackstone Mortgage's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Blackstone Mortgage Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Blackstone Mortgage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Blackstone Mortgage Trust from the perspective of Blackstone Mortgage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Blackstone Mortgage Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 19.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.95.

Blackstone Mortgage after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 19.25  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blackstone Mortgage to cross-verify your projections.

Blackstone Mortgage Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Blackstone price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Blackstone using various technical indicators. When you analyze Blackstone charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Blackstone Mortgage is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Blackstone Mortgage Trust value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Blackstone Mortgage Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Blackstone Mortgage Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 19.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blackstone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blackstone Mortgage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Blackstone Mortgage Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Blackstone Mortgage  Blackstone Mortgage Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Blackstone Mortgage Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Blackstone Mortgage's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Blackstone Mortgage's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.95 and 20.36, respectively. We have considered Blackstone Mortgage's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.25
19.15
Expected Value
20.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blackstone Mortgage stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blackstone Mortgage stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9047
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1631
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0086
SAESum of the absolute errors9.947
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Blackstone Mortgage Trust. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Blackstone Mortgage. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Blackstone Mortgage

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blackstone Mortgage Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.0419.2520.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.8216.0321.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.9319.2919.66
Details

Blackstone Mortgage After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Blackstone Mortgage at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Blackstone Mortgage or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Blackstone Mortgage, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Blackstone Mortgage Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Blackstone Mortgage's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Blackstone Mortgage's historical news coverage. Blackstone Mortgage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.04 and 20.46, respectively. We have considered Blackstone Mortgage's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
19.25
19.25
After-hype Price
20.46
Upside
Blackstone Mortgage is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Blackstone Mortgage Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.

Blackstone Mortgage Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Blackstone Mortgage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blackstone Mortgage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Blackstone Mortgage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
1.21
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
19.25
19.25
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Blackstone Mortgage Hype Timeline

Blackstone Mortgage Trust is currently traded for 19.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Blackstone is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Blackstone Mortgage is about 15557.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.25. About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.91. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Blackstone Mortgage Trust last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The entity had 1:10 split on the 7th of May 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blackstone Mortgage to cross-verify your projections.

Blackstone Mortgage Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Blackstone Mortgage's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Blackstone Mortgage's future price movements. Getting to know how Blackstone Mortgage's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Blackstone Mortgage may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ABRArbor Realty Trust 0.06 3 per month 0.00 (0.24) 3.39 (4.81) 12.71 
RWTRedwood Trust 0.10 9 per month 1.88 (0.01) 3.26 (2.82) 8.72 
MFAMFA Financial 0.04 8 per month 1.16  0.08  2.36 (1.78) 6.46 
CDPCOPT Defense Properties 0.00 0 per month 0.80  0.1  2.15 (1.30) 7.18 
RWTNRedwood Trust 9125 0.00 0 per month 0.50 (0.04) 0.77 (0.80) 2.31 
HIWHighwoods Properties 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 1.92 (2.07) 7.13 
VNOVornado Realty Trust(0.13)10 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.88 (2.94) 9.20 
NMRKNewmark Group 0.00 0 per month 1.71  0  3.42 (2.35) 10.30 
OUTOutfront Media 0.00 0 per month 0.66  0.22  3.65 (1.73) 16.82 

Other Forecasting Options for Blackstone Mortgage

For every potential investor in Blackstone, whether a beginner or expert, Blackstone Mortgage's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Blackstone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Blackstone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Blackstone Mortgage's price trends.

Blackstone Mortgage Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Blackstone Mortgage stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Blackstone Mortgage could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blackstone Mortgage by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Blackstone Mortgage Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Blackstone Mortgage stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Blackstone Mortgage shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Blackstone Mortgage stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Blackstone Mortgage Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Blackstone Mortgage Risk Indicators

The analysis of Blackstone Mortgage's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Blackstone Mortgage's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting blackstone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Blackstone Mortgage

The number of cover stories for Blackstone Mortgage depends on current market conditions and Blackstone Mortgage's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Blackstone Mortgage is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Blackstone Mortgage's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Blackstone Mortgage Short Properties

Blackstone Mortgage's future price predictability will typically decrease when Blackstone Mortgage's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Blackstone Mortgage Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Blackstone Mortgage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blackstone Mortgage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding173.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments323.5 M

Additional Tools for Blackstone Stock Analysis

When running Blackstone Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure Blackstone Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blackstone Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of Blackstone Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blackstone Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blackstone Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blackstone Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.