CAE Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CAE Stock | USD 22.90 0.41 1.76% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CAE Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 24.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.61. CAE Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CAE stock prices and determine the direction of CAE Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CAE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
CAE |
CAE Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the CAE's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 143.2 M | Current Value 179.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 190.8 M |
CAE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CAE Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 24.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CAE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CAE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CAE Stock Forecast Pattern
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CAE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CAE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CAE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.58 and 26.79, respectively. We have considered CAE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CAE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CAE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.477 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3378 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0176 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.6063 |
Predictive Modules for CAE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CAE Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for CAE
For every potential investor in CAE, whether a beginner or expert, CAE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CAE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CAE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CAE's price trends.View CAE Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CAE Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CAE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CAE's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
CAE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CAE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CAE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CAE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CAE Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CAE Risk Indicators
The analysis of CAE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CAE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cae stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Variance | 4.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether CAE Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze CAE's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact CAE's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding CAE Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CAE to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CAE. If investors know CAE will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CAE listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.1) | Earnings Share (0.77) | Revenue Per Share 13.91 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.082 | Return On Assets 0.0279 |
The market value of CAE Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CAE that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CAE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CAE's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CAE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CAE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CAE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CAE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CAE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.