CAE Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CAE Stock | USD 32.89 0.55 1.64% |
CAE Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CAE stock prices and determine the direction of CAE Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CAE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of CAE's share price is at 58 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CAE, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CAE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CAE Inc from the perspective of CAE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of CAE Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 32.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.38. CAE after-hype prediction price | USD 32.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CAE to cross-verify your projections. CAE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CAE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CAE using various technical indicators. When you analyze CAE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CAE Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of CAE Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 32.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CAE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CAE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CAE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CAE | CAE Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CAE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CAE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CAE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.13 and 34.65, respectively. We have considered CAE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CAE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CAE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3389 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1406 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4472 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.385 |
Predictive Modules for CAE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CAE Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CAE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CAE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CAE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CAE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CAE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CAE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CAE's historical news coverage. CAE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.13 and 34.65, respectively. We have considered CAE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CAE is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CAE Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
CAE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CAE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CAE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CAE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
32.89 | 32.89 | 0.00 |
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CAE Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January CAE Inc is traded for 32.89. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. CAE is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on CAE is about 15840.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.89. About 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of CAE was currently reported as 11.69. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.45. CAE Inc last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2020. The entity had 2:1 split on the 5th of July 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CAE to cross-verify your projections.CAE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CAE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CAE's future price movements. Getting to know how CAE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CAE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DRS | Leonardo DRS Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.09 | 3.77 | (2.26) | 9.17 | |
| SARO | StandardAero | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | 0.06 | 3.06 | (3.65) | 8.19 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.82 | 0.27 | 3.68 | (1.71) | 11.04 | |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.06 | 2.75 | (1.61) | 9.37 | |
| PSN | Parsons Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.68 | (3.07) | 25.78 | |
| AAL | American Airlines Group | 0.1 | 9 per month | 2.73 | (0.02) | 3.80 | (4.06) | 13.09 | |
| UHAL | U Haul Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.39 | 0.04 | 2.78 | (2.47) | 9.39 | |
| DY | Dycom Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.84 | 0.16 | 3.06 | (3.17) | 14.96 | |
| RRX | Regal Beloit | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.95 | 0.10 | 4.12 | (3.75) | 11.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for CAE
For every potential investor in CAE, whether a beginner or expert, CAE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CAE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CAE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CAE's price trends.CAE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CAE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CAE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CAE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CAE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CAE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CAE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CAE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CAE Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CAE Risk Indicators
The analysis of CAE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CAE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cae stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Variance | 3.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.8 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CAE
The number of cover stories for CAE depends on current market conditions and CAE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CAE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CAE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CAE Short Properties
CAE's future price predictability will typically decrease when CAE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CAE Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CAE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CAE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 319.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 293.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CAE to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could CAE diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CAE. Projected growth potential of CAE fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every CAE data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of CAE Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CAE that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CAE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CAE's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because CAE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CAE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between CAE's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding CAE should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, CAE's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.