CAE Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| CAE Stock | CAD 45.15 2.18 4.61% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of CAE Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 44.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.37. CAE Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although CAE's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of CAE's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CAE fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of CAE's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.437 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3473 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.2262 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5069 | Wall Street Target Price 45.5385 |
Using CAE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CAE Inc from the perspective of CAE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of CAE Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 44.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.37. CAE after-hype prediction price | CAD 45.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CAE |
CAE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CAE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CAE using various technical indicators. When you analyze CAE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CAE Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of CAE Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 44.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.75, mean absolute percentage error of 3.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CAE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CAE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CAE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CAE | CAE Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CAE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CAE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CAE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.02 and 46.56, respectively. We have considered CAE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CAE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CAE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.3304 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7479 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0439 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 108.3717 |
Predictive Modules for CAE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CAE Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for CAE
For every potential investor in CAE, whether a beginner or expert, CAE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CAE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CAE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CAE's price trends.CAE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CAE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CAE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CAE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CAE Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CAE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CAE's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CAE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CAE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CAE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CAE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CAE Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 34637.27 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.07) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.82 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.18) |
CAE Risk Indicators
The analysis of CAE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CAE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cae stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.89 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with CAE
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CAE position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CAE will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with CAE Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CAE could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CAE when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CAE - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CAE Inc to buy it.
The correlation of CAE is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CAE moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CAE Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CAE can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CAE to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.