Cae Inc Stock Price Prediction
| CAE Stock | CAD 31.99 0.59 1.81% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
62
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.1) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.23 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.17 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.31 | Wall Street Target Price 31.3462 |
Using CAE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CAE Inc from the perspective of CAE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CAE to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CAE because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
CAE after-hype prediction price | CAD 31.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CAE |
CAE After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CAE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CAE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CAE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CAE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CAE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CAE's historical news coverage. CAE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.73 and 33.99, respectively. We have considered CAE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CAE is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CAE Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
CAE Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CAE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CAE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CAE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 2.13 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
31.99 | 31.86 | 0.41 |
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CAE Hype Timeline
CAE Inc is currently traded for 31.99on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.29. CAE is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 31.86. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.41%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.48%. The volatility of related hype on CAE is about 356.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.70. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of CAE was currently reported as 13.76. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.77. CAE Inc recorded a loss per share of 1.08. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2020. The firm had 2:1 split on the 5th of July 2001. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out CAE Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.CAE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CAE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CAE's future price movements. Getting to know how CAE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CAE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GIB-A | CGI Inc | (1.15) | 3 per month | 1.19 | (0.06) | 1.45 | (1.49) | 6.43 | |
| SAP | Saputo Inc | (0.1) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.35) | 1.13 | (1.65) | 5.40 | |
| CP | Canadian Pacific Railway | (1.80) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.03 | (1.45) | 4.41 | |
| FTT | Finning International | 0.66 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.30 | (2.43) | 14.51 |
CAE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CAE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CAE using various technical indicators. When you analyze CAE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About CAE Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of CAE stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CAE Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CAE based on analysis of CAE hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CAE's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CAE's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.027 | 0.0157 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.04 | 1.4 |
Story Coverage note for CAE
The number of cover stories for CAE depends on current market conditions and CAE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CAE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CAE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CAE Short Properties
CAE's future price predictability will typically decrease when CAE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CAE Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CAE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CAE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 318.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 160.1 M |
Check out CAE Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.