Caterpillar Stock Forward View
| CATR Stock | 54.99 0.69 1.24% |
Caterpillar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Caterpillar stock prices and determine the direction of Caterpillar's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Caterpillar's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of today the rsi of Caterpillar's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.095 |
Using Caterpillar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caterpillar from the perspective of Caterpillar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Caterpillar on the next trading day is expected to be 58.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.50. Caterpillar after-hype prediction price | CAD 54.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Caterpillar |
Caterpillar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Caterpillar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caterpillar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caterpillar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Caterpillar Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Caterpillar on the next trading day is expected to be 58.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Caterpillar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Caterpillar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Caterpillar Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Caterpillar | Caterpillar Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Caterpillar Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Caterpillar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Caterpillar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.84 and 60.23, respectively. We have considered Caterpillar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Caterpillar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Caterpillar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2463 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8771 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0195 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.5037 |
Predictive Modules for Caterpillar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caterpillar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Caterpillar After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Caterpillar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caterpillar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caterpillar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Caterpillar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Caterpillar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caterpillar's historical news coverage. Caterpillar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.74 and 57.14, respectively. We have considered Caterpillar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Caterpillar is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caterpillar is based on 3 months time horizon.
Caterpillar Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Caterpillar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caterpillar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caterpillar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 2.20 | 0.05 | 2.16 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
54.99 | 54.94 | 0.09 |
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Caterpillar Hype Timeline
Caterpillar is currently traded for 54.99on NEO Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 2.16. Caterpillar is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 54.94. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.55%. The volatility of related hype on Caterpillar is about 55.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 57.15. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.07. Caterpillar last dividend was issued on the 20th of January 2026. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caterpillar to cross-verify your projections.Caterpillar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Caterpillar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caterpillar's future price movements. Getting to know how Caterpillar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caterpillar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BPO-PG | Brookfield Office Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.42 | 0.17 | 0.94 | (0.84) | 3.19 | |
| ET | Evertz Technologies Limited | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.77 | 0.19 | 2.26 | (2.17) | 15.34 | |
| FTG | Firan Technology Group | (0.99) | 4 per month | 2.29 | 0.20 | 5.27 | (3.80) | 16.85 | |
| HAM | Highwood Asset Management | 0.17 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.80 | (4.88) | 11.06 | |
| MU | Micron Technology | (1.98) | 9 per month | 3.42 | 0.17 | 9.95 | (5.45) | 19.88 | |
| CSU | Constellation Software | 30.34 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.44 | (4.74) | 13.22 | |
| XTRA | Xtract One Technologies | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.97 | (5.97) | 19.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Caterpillar
For every potential investor in Caterpillar, whether a beginner or expert, Caterpillar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Caterpillar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Caterpillar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Caterpillar's price trends.Caterpillar Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Caterpillar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Caterpillar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caterpillar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Caterpillar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Caterpillar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Caterpillar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Caterpillar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caterpillar entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 544.65 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.55) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 54.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 54.94 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.27) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.69) |
Caterpillar Risk Indicators
The analysis of Caterpillar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Caterpillar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caterpillar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Variance | 4.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Caterpillar
The number of cover stories for Caterpillar depends on current market conditions and Caterpillar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caterpillar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caterpillar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caterpillar to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Caterpillar Stock refer to our How to Trade Caterpillar Stock guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.