Cincinnati Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CCJ Stock | EUR 137.90 0.25 0.18% |
Cincinnati Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Cincinnati Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 22nd of February 2026, The relative strength indicator of Cincinnati Financial's share price is at 56 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Cincinnati Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.674 | Wall Street Target Price 133 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.218 |
Using Cincinnati Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cincinnati Financial from the perspective of Cincinnati Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cincinnati Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 137.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.44. Cincinnati Financial after-hype prediction price | EUR 137.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Cincinnati |
Cincinnati Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cincinnati price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cincinnati using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cincinnati charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cincinnati Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cincinnati Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 137.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34, mean absolute percentage error of 3.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cincinnati Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cincinnati Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cincinnati Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cincinnati Financial | Cincinnati Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Cincinnati Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cincinnati Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cincinnati Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 136.57 and 139.23, respectively. We have considered Cincinnati Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cincinnati Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cincinnati Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5009 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0877 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3407 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 80.44 |
Predictive Modules for Cincinnati Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cincinnati Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cincinnati Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cincinnati Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cincinnati Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cincinnati Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cincinnati Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cincinnati Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cincinnati Financial's historical news coverage. Cincinnati Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 136.61 and 139.27, respectively. We have considered Cincinnati Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cincinnati Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cincinnati Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cincinnati Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cincinnati Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cincinnati Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cincinnati Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 14 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
137.90 | 137.94 | 0.03 |
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Cincinnati Financial Hype Timeline
Cincinnati Financial is currently traded for 137.90on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.17. Cincinnati is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 137.94 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Cincinnati Financial is about 39.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 138.07. The company reported the revenue of 11.34 B. Net Income was 2.29 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.16 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cincinnati Financial to cross-verify your projections.Cincinnati Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cincinnati Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cincinnati Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Cincinnati Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cincinnati Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PQ9 | PT Bank Mandiri | 0.04 | 1 per month | 5.73 | 0.04 | 17.39 | (14.29) | 40.26 | |
| PQ90 | BK MANDIRI ADR20 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.95 | 0.04 | 11.49 | (9.09) | 42.92 | |
| BYRA | PT Bank Rakyat | (0.01) | 1 per month | 4.07 | 0.03 | 11.11 | (10.00) | 26.67 | |
| SSUN | Samsung Electronics Co | 24.00 | 7 per month | 2.32 | 0.24 | 6.04 | (4.93) | 14.94 | |
| SSU | Samsung Electronics Co | 110.00 | 3 per month | 2.24 | 0.28 | 7.66 | (4.89) | 15.03 | |
| SSUN | Samsung Electronics Co | (70.00) | 4 per month | 2.20 | 0.24 | 6.10 | (4.11) | 13.83 | |
| SSU | Samsung Electronics Co | (30.00) | 1 per month | 1.98 | 0.29 | 6.22 | (3.69) | 15.50 | |
| BZG2 | PT Bank Central | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.50 | (7.69) | 22.82 | |
| TCID | Telkom Indonesia Tbk | 0.00 | 1 per month | 5.37 | 0.01 | 12.50 | (15.00) | 35.42 | |
| PTI | Perusahaan Perseroan PT | (0.10) | 2 per month | 2.44 | (0.04) | 3.47 | (2.73) | 16.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cincinnati Financial
For every potential investor in Cincinnati, whether a beginner or expert, Cincinnati Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cincinnati Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cincinnati. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cincinnati Financial's price trends.Cincinnati Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cincinnati Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cincinnati Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cincinnati Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cincinnati Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cincinnati Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cincinnati Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cincinnati Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cincinnati Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 137.9 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 137.9 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.25) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.93 |
Cincinnati Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cincinnati Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cincinnati Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cincinnati stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.976 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cincinnati Financial
The number of cover stories for Cincinnati Financial depends on current market conditions and Cincinnati Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cincinnati Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cincinnati Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cincinnati Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Cincinnati Stock please use our How to Invest in Cincinnati Financial guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.