Canfor Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| CFP Stock | CAD 14.73 0.40 2.79% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Canfor on the next trading day is expected to be 15.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.81. Canfor Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Canfor's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Canfor's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Canfor fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Canfor's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.58) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.97) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.52) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.75) | Wall Street Target Price 15.1667 |
Using Canfor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Canfor from the perspective of Canfor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Canfor on the next trading day is expected to be 15.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.81. Canfor after-hype prediction price | CAD 14.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Canfor |
Canfor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Canfor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Canfor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Canfor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Canfor Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Canfor on the next trading day is expected to be 15.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Canfor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Canfor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Canfor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Canfor | Canfor Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Canfor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Canfor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Canfor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.31 and 17.75, respectively. We have considered Canfor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Canfor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Canfor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7876 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2873 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0237 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.8104 |
Predictive Modules for Canfor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canfor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Canfor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Canfor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Canfor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Canfor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Canfor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Canfor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Canfor's historical news coverage. Canfor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.51 and 16.95, respectively. We have considered Canfor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Canfor is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Canfor is based on 3 months time horizon.
Canfor Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Canfor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Canfor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Canfor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 2.22 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.73 | 14.73 | 0.00 |
|
Canfor Hype Timeline
Canfor is currently traded for 14.73on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Canfor is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on Canfor is about 2494.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.76. About 55.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.57. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Canfor recorded a loss per share of 3.98. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of June 2003. The firm had 1:4 split on the 29th of December 2014. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canfor to cross-verify your projections.Canfor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Canfor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Canfor's future price movements. Getting to know how Canfor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Canfor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NDM | Northern Dynasty Minerals | 0.67 | 1 per month | 4.18 | 0.04 | 8.64 | (7.20) | 19.46 | |
| MSA | Mineros SA | (0.14) | 7 per month | 2.35 | 0.20 | 4.98 | (3.49) | 13.34 | |
| CNL | Collective Mining | (0.07) | 9 per month | 2.53 | 0.18 | 6.24 | (5.40) | 14.25 | |
| IFP | Interfor Corp | 0.12 | 4 per month | 2.61 | 0.11 | 4.82 | (4.90) | 17.74 | |
| CFX | Canfor Pulp Products | 0.02 | 5 per month | 2.59 | 0.14 | 5.88 | (5.00) | 37.91 | |
| AFM | Alphamin Res | 0.00 | 1 per month | 2.64 | 0.15 | 5.88 | (4.76) | 16.71 | |
| SLS | Solaris Resources | (0.24) | 9 per month | 1.62 | 0.29 | 5.36 | (3.08) | 11.65 | |
| MUX | McEwen Mining | 0.15 | 7 per month | 2.87 | 0.12 | 6.27 | (3.96) | 14.06 | |
| GFP | GreenFirst Forest Products | (0.04) | 8 per month | 5.99 | 0.03 | 8.57 | (6.70) | 34.82 | |
| RUP | Rupert Resources | 0.42 | 7 per month | 1.79 | 0.15 | 5.52 | (3.57) | 11.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Canfor
For every potential investor in Canfor, whether a beginner or expert, Canfor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Canfor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Canfor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Canfor's price trends.Canfor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Canfor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Canfor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Canfor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Canfor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Canfor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Canfor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Canfor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Canfor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 15085.68 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7692 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.62 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.36 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.4 |
Canfor Risk Indicators
The analysis of Canfor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Canfor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting canfor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Variance | 4.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Canfor
The number of cover stories for Canfor depends on current market conditions and Canfor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Canfor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Canfor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Canfor Short Properties
Canfor's future price predictability will typically decrease when Canfor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Canfor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Canfor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canfor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 118.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 259.3 M |
Other Information on Investing in Canfor Stock
Canfor financial ratios help investors to determine whether Canfor Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Canfor with respect to the benefits of owning Canfor security.