Carlyle Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CG Stock | USD 58.78 0.72 1.21% |
Carlyle Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Carlyle's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 31st of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Carlyle's share price is approaching 47 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Carlyle, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (1.00) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0559 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.0134 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.6924 | Wall Street Target Price 70.0667 |
Using Carlyle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carlyle Group from the perspective of Carlyle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carlyle using Carlyle's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carlyle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carlyle's stock price.
Carlyle Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Carlyle's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Carlyle. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Carlyle stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 55.7858 | Short Percent 0.0652 | Short Ratio 8.65 | Shares Short Prior Month 16.2 M | 50 Day MA 59.1634 |
Carlyle Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Carlyle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 58.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.28.Carlyle Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Carlyle's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Carlyle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Carlyle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Carlyle Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Carlyle's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Carlyle.
Carlyle Implied Volatility | 0.6 |
Carlyle's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carlyle Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carlyle's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carlyle stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carlyle's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Carlyle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 58.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.28. Carlyle after-hype prediction price | USD 58.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlyle to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Carlyle contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Carlyle Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0375% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Carlyle trading at USD 58.78, that is roughly USD 0.022 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Carlyle's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Carlyle Group options at the current volatility level of 0.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Carlyle Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Carlyle's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Carlyle's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Carlyle stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Carlyle's open interest, investors have to compare it to Carlyle's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Carlyle is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Carlyle. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Carlyle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carlyle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carlyle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carlyle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Carlyle Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Carlyle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 58.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.02, mean absolute percentage error of 1.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Carlyle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Carlyle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Carlyle Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Carlyle | Carlyle Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Carlyle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Carlyle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Carlyle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.84 and 60.72, respectively. We have considered Carlyle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carlyle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carlyle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8598 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1937 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0213 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.28 |
Predictive Modules for Carlyle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carlyle Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Carlyle After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Carlyle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carlyle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Carlyle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Carlyle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Carlyle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carlyle's historical news coverage. Carlyle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.36 and 60.24, respectively. We have considered Carlyle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Carlyle is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carlyle Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Carlyle Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carlyle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carlyle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carlyle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.94 | 0.48 | 0.81 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
58.78 | 58.30 | 0.82 |
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Carlyle Hype Timeline
As of January 31, 2026 Carlyle Group is listed for 58.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.48, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.81. Carlyle is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 58.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 96.52%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.82%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Carlyle is about 57.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 57.97. About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Carlyle was currently reported as 15.6. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.83. Carlyle Group last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlyle to cross-verify your projections.Carlyle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Carlyle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carlyle's future price movements. Getting to know how Carlyle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carlyle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APO | Apollo Global Management | (0.83) | 7 per month | 1.87 | 0.04 | 2.62 | (3.64) | 10.80 | |
| BX | Blackstone Group | (3.99) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.02 | (2.86) | 9.12 | |
| BAM | Brookfield Asset Management | 0.37 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.15 | (3.66) | 6.75 | |
| ARES | Ares Management LP | 1.46 | 13 per month | 1.90 | (0.0002) | 2.91 | (3.44) | 11.24 | |
| KKR | KKR Co LP | (5.45) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.72 | (3.67) | 10.88 | |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital | 0.55 | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.26 | (3.64) | 9.07 | |
| HLNE | Hamilton Lane | (1.56) | 26 per month | 1.58 | 0.12 | 3.12 | (3.27) | 9.90 | |
| BLK | BlackRock | (33.95) | 7 per month | 1.46 | (0.03) | 2.64 | (2.40) | 10.50 | |
| TCPC | BlackRock TCP Capital | (0.20) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.62 | (2.35) | 17.70 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.05 | 12 per month | 1.52 | 0.08 | 2.51 | (2.58) | 8.89 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | (0.17) | 7 per month | 1.12 | (0.04) | 2.13 | (2.11) | 5.76 | |
| GBDC | Golub Capital BDC | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.37 | (1.31) | 3.53 | |
| NMFC | New Mountain Finance | (0.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.41 | (1.72) | 7.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Carlyle
For every potential investor in Carlyle, whether a beginner or expert, Carlyle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Carlyle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Carlyle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Carlyle's price trends.Carlyle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Carlyle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Carlyle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carlyle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Carlyle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Carlyle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Carlyle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Carlyle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Carlyle Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 58514.08 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.55) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 58.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.57) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.72) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.87 |
Carlyle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Carlyle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Carlyle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carlyle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Carlyle
The number of cover stories for Carlyle depends on current market conditions and Carlyle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carlyle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carlyle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Carlyle Short Properties
Carlyle's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carlyle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carlyle Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carlyle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carlyle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 368 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlyle to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Can Asset Management & Custody Banks industry sustain growth momentum? Does Carlyle have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carlyle. Projected growth potential of Carlyle fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Carlyle demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (1.00) | Dividend Share 1.4 | Earnings Share 1.78 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.95) |
Investors evaluate Carlyle Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Carlyle's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Carlyle's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Carlyle's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Carlyle should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Carlyle's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.